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  • EVENTS

Petreaus, David Petreaus and the Author Who Shagged Me -- VIDEO

By National Journal News Desk
November 13, 2012 | 9:34 a.m.
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The late-night hosts could not help themselves from combining the Gen. David Petraeus scandal with the latest installment of the James Bond franchise. The fact that his mistress has a name that could pass for a Bond villainess' and that the biography he penned about Gen. Petraeus is titled "All In" made the comparison impossible to ignore.

Today's Must See Moment -- Fast forward to 3:05 to find out the latest television spinoff from the Petraeus scandal.













Petreaus, David Petreaus and the Author Who Shagged Me -- VIDEO

By National Journal News Desk
November 13, 2012 | 9:09 a.m.
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The late-night hosts could not help themselves from combining the Gen. David Petraeus scandal with the latest installment of the James Bond franchise. The fact that his mistress has a name that could pass for a Bond villainess' and that the biography he penned about Gen. Petraeus is titled "All In" made the comparison impossible to ignore.

Today's Must See Moment -- Fast forward to 3:05 to find out the latest television spinoff from the Petraeus scandal.













Krysten Sinema Winner in Arizona's 9th District

By Scott Bland
November 12, 2012 | 1:30 p.m.
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Democrat Kyrsten Sinema has won the race to represent Arizona's new 9th Congressional District, according to the Associated Press, which called the race Monday.

Maricopa County is still tallying thousands of outstanding early and provisional ballots, but Sinema had steadily opened a wider and wider lead as those votes were counted since Election Day. Sinema currently leads GOP nominee Vernon Parker 48 percent to 45 percent, with a Libertarian challenger grabbing the support of six percent of voters.

There are now five remaining House races (in addition to a runoff in Louisiana's 3rd District).

Update: The Six Unresolved House Races

By Julie Sobel
November 12, 2012 | 1:10 p.m.
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Now that Rep. Mary Bono Mack, R-Calif., has conceded, there are six uncalled House races remaining. Here's where things stand in California, Arizona, North Carolina, and Florida.

-- California's 7th and 52nd Districts:

As we reported Friday, in the 7th District Democrat Ami Bera expanded his lead over GOP Rep. Dan Lungren as Sacramento County tallied additional ballots. His lead is currently at 1,779 votes, and results will be updated again Tuesday.

In the 52nd District, Democrat Scott Peters' lead over Rep. Brian Bilbray also grew Friday: While Thursday the Republican trailed by 814 votes, by Friday the number was 1,334. The next update will come later today.

-- Arizona's 2nd and 9th Districts:

As counting continues, the latest in Arizona's 2nd District has Democratic Rep. Ron Barber up over 300 votes.

Over in the 9th District, Democratic nominee Krysten Sinema now leads GOP nominee Vernon Parker by nearly 5,800 votes.

Read More »

The Petraeus Affair and A Powerless GOP -- VIDEO

By National Journal News Desk
November 12, 2012 | 8:52 a.m.
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The news of Gen. David Petraeus' affair and ensuing resignation occurred early enough in the day to slip into a couple of the late-night monologues, but most of the late-night chatter consisted of the Republican disarray following the presidential election.

Today's Must See Moment -- Fast forward to 1:23 to find out what the elderly woman in the airport did and said to Sen. Claire McCaskill.













Hotline Sort: No More Mack Attacks

By Julie Sobel
November 12, 2012 | 8:20 a.m.
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Welcome back to Hotline Sort. Bono Mack concedes, West doesn't, Florida goes to Obama, and "The Simpsons" takes on Rove.

9) The Simpsons makes fun of Karl Rove's election night.

8) In Nebraska, the outgoing GOP Speaker of the Legislature Mike Flood appears poised to announce his candidacy for governor this evening, when he makes a "special announcement."

Popular GOP Gov. Dave Heineman is term-limited.

7) Speaker John Boehner gets tough on House Republicans in a conference call. The New York Times:

Their party lost, badly, Mr. Boehner said, and while Republicans would still control the House and would continue to staunchly oppose tax rate increases as Congress grapples with the impending fiscal battle, they had to avoid the nasty showdowns that marked so much of the last two years.

Members on the call, subdued and dark, murmured words of support -- even a few who had been a thorn in the speaker's side for much of this Congress.

6) A plea deal reportedly being negotiated between Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr., D-Ill., and the federal government would end his congressional career. Some jail time is also likely.

5) Rep. Mary Bono Mack, R-Calif., has conceded to Democratic challenger Raul Ruiz.

Read More »

What We Learned: It's All Over Now

By Hotline Staff
November 11, 2012 | 9:46 a.m.
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What we at The Hotline learned this week:

-- Ultimately, the polls were right -- for the most part. For months, pundits and pollsters debated whether public surveys were capturing accurate snapshots of the coming electorate, with conservatives in many cases alleging that polls were sampling too many Democrats and providing an artificial boost to Democratic candidates.

Those critics were wrong, as Tuesday night showed, and the polls were correct: President Obama did have that advantage, and it has propelled him to a second term. But the election also showed the polling industry is still facing increasing challenges related to how the various polls are conducted. The demographics of the country are changing, and the way in which Americans communicate with one another is changing even faster; both of these movements are significant threats to the future of telephone polling, whether conducted by live interviewers or automated computers.

-- Republicans were stunned by Obama's decisive victory, but the party performed even worse at the Senate level. In five Senate races, the GOP nominee performed at least nine points worse than Mitt Romney (Missouri, Indiana, Montana, Maine, North Dakota). Of the four who overperformed Romney, all were in solidly-Democratic states and none were victorious. And brand-name Republicans like Tommy Thompson and George Allen weren't able to pick off any cross-over support despite their records as ex-governors.

At the beginning of the year, if a pundit suggested Democrats would gain Senate seats, they'd have been seen as delusional. Gaining two was the equivalent of an inside straight in poker -- and possible in part because of the weak GOP Senate recruiting class.

-- If there's a silver lining for Republicans, it's this: They have a deep, diverse bench for 2016. Rising stars like Marco Rubio, Paul Ryan, Chris Christie and Bobby Jindal -- just to name a few -- could prove capable of modernizing the conservative movement and providing a much-needed face lift for a party that's performed miserably among key segments of the electorate: minorities and young people. Rubio, especially, has the political skill and personal appeal to help solve the GOP's vexing demographic dilemma.

Speaking of Rubio: He has made a series of savvy political chess moves since arriving in Washington, and his decision to decline the NRSC chairmanship is the latest example. The freshman senator already has enough on his plate: a young family to attend to, an underdeveloped PAC to nurture, and a key role to play in his party's imminent reformation on the immigration issue. Oh, he's also got a schedule to keep clear -- Iowa has already come calling (he'll travel there later this month), and New Hampshire won't be far behind.

-- The majority of Senate nominees who won Tuesday won a higher percentage of the vote in their races than their party's ticket mate did in the presidential race. For Joe Manchin, Heidi Heitkamp and Jon Tester, it was about survival: how else could they win states Obama was destined to lose? But for freshmen and potential 2016ers Amy Klobuchar and Kirsten Gillibrand, it was about running up the score to make a statement in otherwise safe seats against little-known opponents. Both Gillibrand and Klobuchar received more than 300,000 more votes than Obama.

-- Gillibrand's numbers stick out the most though. She ran up the score by an even greater margin than Hillary Clinton did in 2006 against a sacrificial GOP lamb by blanketing the expensive airwaves with positive TV ads, spending over $9 million in the third quarter reporting period alone. She also cuts checks worth thousands to dollars to individual women candidates across the country, many of whom won.

While New York Republicans and Democrats alike routinely dismiss her as a lightweight in the state's hierarchy compared to Clinton, Sen. Chuck Schumer, Gov. Andrew Cuomo and New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg, they should take note that the 45-year-old prodigious fundraiser now has capital to burn, favors to cash and six years to pad her warchest. Even if she doesn't run for president in four years, the GOP's inability to recruit a serious challenger to her in three-straight election cycles and her own relentless push has made her a serious player on the national scene.

Read More »

Inslee Wins WA GOV Race

By Sarah Mimms
November 9, 2012 | 10:26 p.m.
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The nation's longest streak of Democratic governors remains intact.

After days of counting ballot's in the state's all-mail election, former Rep. Jay Inslee (D) will become Washington's 23rd governor. The Associated Press projects Inslee will defeat Republican Attorney General Rob McKenna by a narrow 51 percent to 49 percent margin, with 79 percent of precincts reporting.

McKenna, a technocrat who shunned party ideology, was considered one of Republicans' best chances of winning the governor's mansion. The state hasn't elected a Republican governor since John Spellman in 1980. As Washington state Republican Party Chairman Kirby Wilbur put it at an election night party, "If we can't elect Rob McKenna, maybe it is time to move to Texas," according to the Seattle Times. McKenna conceded the race on Friday evening, as he trailed by 40,000 votes.

Read More »

House Dems Barber, Bera Gain After More Canvassing

By Scott Bland
November 9, 2012 | 6:31 p.m.
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One Democratic House member has taken the lead in his race and one Democratic challenger has stretched his advantage as elections officials in Arizona and California counted more ballots in two contested races Friday afternoon.

Rep. Ron Barber, D-Ariz., took a 586-vote lead over Republican Martha McSally Friday after local elections authorities counted more early ballots. McSally led Barber by almost 9,000 votes in ballots cast at polling places, but Barber leads among early voters, and that margin is expanding as the counties in Arizona's 2nd District tally outstanding early votes. This is the first time Barber has led McSally in the vote count since election night. As Hotline On Call reported yesterday, early voting has tended to favor Democrats in Arizona lately, especially in this district.

Meanwhile, in California's 7th District, Democrat Ami Bera expanded his lead over GOP Rep. Dan Lungren as Sacramento County tallied additional ballots. Bera had a scant 184-vote advantage over Lungren after the final election night tally, but that expanded to nearly 2,000 -- 105,245 to 103,466, almost a one percentage point margin -- as the county tallied some of the 162,000 outstanding mail ballots and 31,000 outstanding provisional ballots left over after Tuesday. (Some of those ballots apply to other congressional districts.)

Previewing the Sunday Shows

By Christopher Peleo-Lazar
November 9, 2012 | 1:20 p.m.
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Updated at 1:56 p.m.

The Sunday shows will reflect on the election results and look to the looming fiscal cliff.

Obama senior adviser David Axelrod will headline Face the Nation discussing President Obama's victory this past week and the next four years. Newly elected Rep. Joaquin Castro, D-Texas, will be on Meet the Press talking about Obama's challenges in the second term.

On State of the Union, the future of both political parties takes center stage. California Gov. Jerry Brown will talk about the Democratic agenda in an interview with host Candy Crowley. On the Republican side, former Commerce Secretary Carlos Gutierrez, former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman and Campaign for Working Families president Gary Bauer will talk about what's next for the GOP. Face the Nation will also host Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-SC., discussing similar issues.

Univision's Al Punto will have Gutierrez, former HUD Secretary Henry Cisneros , former Miami Mayor Manny Diaz and four newly elected members of Congress, Rep. Joe Garcia, D-Fla., Rep. Raul Ruiz, D-Calif., Rep. Pete Gallego, D-Texas, Rep. Filemon Vela, D-Texas, talking about immigration reform and the impact of Latinos on the election.

The fiscal cliff will be a popular topic on Sunday. Fox News Sunday has Sen. Kent Conrad, D-N.D., Sen. Bob Corker, R-Tenn., and Rep. Chris Van Hollen, D-Md., talking about the negotiations. Conrad will also be appearing on BloombergTV's Capitol Gains. Sen. Charles Schumer, D-NY., and Sen. Tom Coburn, R-Okla., are on Meet the Press discussing the same issue.

Sen. Dianne Feinstein, D-Calif., will talk about Libya and Iran on Fox News Sunday.

AHIP CEO Karen Ignagni will be on Capitol Gains talking about implementation of healthcare reform now that Obama has won his second term.

Check out the full listings after the jump.

Read More »

Insiders: Look to Florida for Strongest 2016 GOP Candidate

By Alex Roarty and Peter Bell
November 9, 2012 | 12:29 p.m.
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The strongest GOP presidential nominee in 2016 will come from Florida, according to the latest National Journal Political Insiders Poll. But Republicans and Democrats don't agree if that person is Sen. Marco Rubio or former Gov. Jeb Bush.

Among Democrats, Bush received a near majority of the votes, 47 percent, among the eight choices presented. New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie received the second most tallies, at 28 percent, and no other contender managed to receive more than 15 percent of the vote share.

Who would be the strongest Republican presidential nominee in 2016?

  Democrats
(91 votes)
Republicans
(88 votes)
Jeb Bush 47% 27%
Chris Christie 28% 8%
Bobby Jindal 1% 3%
Susana Martinez 2% 2%
Rand Paul 0% 0%
Marco Rubio 13% 40%
Paul Ryan 1% 9%
Rick Santorum 2% 9%


Read More »

Update: Washington's Gubernatorial Race

By Julie Sobel
November 9, 2012 | 10:45 a.m.
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The only governor's race that hasn't been called yet is Washington's gubernatorial contest: 74.5 percent of precincts are now reporting, and former Democratic Rep. Jay Inslee is holding his lead over GOP Attorney General Rob McKenna. Inslee has 51 percent of the vote to McKenna's 49 percent, but McKenna's team is not giving up as results from the all-mail election continue to come in (ballots just needed to be post-marked by Election Day).

Here's the Seattle Times on the latest:

With an estimated 770,000 votes left to be counted, time is running out for McKenna, whose vote deficit has remained nearly unchanged since Election Day.

To catch up, the Republican would need to grab 54 percent of the remaining votes -- a target he has not hit on any day of vote-counting so far.

In Thursday's count, McKenna received 48.9 percent of the vote from the 20 counties that reported results. That's an improvement from Election Day in those same counties, when he got 47.6 percent. But it was down from Wednesday's tally when he got 50.4 percent.

If the vote in King County stays the same, McKenna would need 62 percent of the estimated remaining votes outside King County to pull even. McKenna is now getting 53.4 percent outside the county and 37.8 percent within.

Florida's Still Counting Votes and Mitt's Trying to Move On -- VIDEO

By National Journal News Desk
November 9, 2012 | 8:58 a.m.
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The election has already been called, the Obamas are celebrating and the Romneys are recovering, yet Florida is still counting votes. The late-night hosts made sure to poke fun at the shambles that is Florida's election capabilities, and also to take a look at each candidate's post-election life.

Today's Must See Moment -- Fast forward to 1:52 to see both the most and the least retweeted photos of all time.













Steve King not Ruling Out 2014 Senate Bid

By Julie Sobel
November 9, 2012 | 8:20 a.m.
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Rep. Steve King, R-Iowa, won't close the door to challenging Democratic Sen. Tom Harkin in 2014.

King is coming off a pricey reelection battle against former Iowa First Lady Christie Vilsack, winning a sixth term in office by about 8 percentage points.

"There's a question I hadn't had time to contemplate since the election," King told reporters. "We're only in the second day after the election."

King, on a challenge to Harkin (who is 73 and hasn't announced whether he'll run for reelection), per the Cedar Rapids Gazette:

"I know that's something that is on the horizon," King said, "but I think there are some decisions that need to be made before I could comment on that."

He wants to keep his options open, "but, on the other hand, I don't want to raise expectations unnecessarily."

King is a social conservative (he even voiced support for GOP Rep. Todd Akin this summer when his "legitimate rape" comments caused a firestorm), but said he's not too conservative to run statewide.


Hotline Sort: The Not-So-Mighty Quinn

By Julie Sobel
November 9, 2012 | 8:11 a.m.
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Welcome back to Hotline Sort. McAuliffe gets in the Virginia governor's race, Cory Booker's mulling over challenging Chris Christie, Obama gets teary talking to campaign staff, and Charles Darwin gets some support.

10) After Rep. Paul Broun, R-Ga., called evolution, among other scientific theories, "lies straight from the pits of hell," Charles Darwin received close to 4,000 write-in votes.

9) Former U.S. Ambassador to China Jon Huntsman is among those being considered for Secretary of State, the Associated Press reports.

8) Rep. Steven LaTourette, R-Ohio, weighs in on Mitt Romney's loss in his state. LaTourette, on CNN's "Situation Room": "He didn't win Ohio because every time we got these socially moderate fiscally conservative women close to us, some chucklehead in Indiana or Missouri would say that being pregnant after being raped is a gift from God."

7) The Illinois gubernatorial race in 2014 is shaping up early: Now, GOP Illinois state Sen. Kirk Dillard says he's preparing for another run for (he lost in the primary in 2010).

Other people who have indicated potential interest: Rep. Aaron Schock and freshly defeated Rep. Joe Walsh on the Republican side. The Democratic side could be even more interesting, with former White House chief of staff Bill Daley and state Attorney General Lisa Madigan not ruling out challenging Gov. Pat Quinn in the Democratic primary.

6) Former Democratic National Committee Chairman Terry McAuliffe makes it official: He's making a second run for governor in Virginia.

"I realize that after any election some people's immediate question is about the next campaign," he said in an email to supporters. "I want to be straightforward with you: I plan on running for Governor of Virginia in 2013."

The big question: Will Democratic Sen. Mark Warner, up for re-election in 2014, make a run at the governorship, creating a blockbuster primary or stick it out for a second term in the Senate?

Read More »

George P. Bush Files to Run for Office

By Julie Sobel
November 9, 2012 | 7:16 a.m.
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Who's ready for another Bush to run for office?

No, not Jeb -- while people speculate about a 2016 matchup between the former Florida governor and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, his son is running for something in the meantime.

George P. Bush made a filing to run for office in Texas, the Associated Press reports, though it's unclear which one. Bush filed a campaign treasurer appointment Wednesday. The AP:

The 36-year-old said in September his goal was to run for office and acknowledged that he had his eyes on several statewide offices.

McAuliffe Gears Up For Virginia Gubernatorial Run

By Dan Roem
November 8, 2012 | 4:00 p.m.
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With the apparent blessing of Sen. Mark Warner, D-Va., former Democratic National Committee Chairman Terry McAuliffe is done pretending that he's going to run for Virginia governor in 2013 and is preparing to actually do it.

According to the Norfolk Virginian-Pilot, McAuliffe told Hampton Mayor Molly Ward that Warner "had 'given him the green light' to proceed" with his second bid for the Democratic nomination.

This comes at a time when Warner's upcoming seatmate and former lieutenant governor, Democratic Sen.-elect Tim Kaine, joked that he would feel "bait-and-switched" if he did not have the chance to serve with Warner in the Senate after campaigning with him this year.

"I really want Mark to stay in the Senate," said Kaine, who launched a TV ad last month in which Warner said he and Kaine would "work together" in the Senate "to restore fiscal responsibility, grow our economy and create jobs."

Read More »

Inside the 7 Unresolved House Races

By Julie Sobel and Scott Bland
November 8, 2012 | 3:51 p.m.
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The election is over -- but not in a few House districts. First of all, GOP Reps. Charles Boustany and Jeff Landry have a December runoff coming up in Louisiana's 3rd District, after neither won a majority on Tuesday. But a handful of races that will eventually produce a winner haven't been resolved. Here's the current status of the seven races still in question:

-- Arizona's 2nd and 9th Districts:

In Arizona, over 602,000 early and provisional ballots remain uncounted -- nearly 450,000 of which are in Maricopa County, the state's population center. That should at the very least tighten the Senate race, but it could affect the outcomes of two House races, too.

In the 2nd District, Democratic Rep. Ron Barber is slightly behind GOP challenger Martha McSally -- the Arizona Daily Star reports that McSally led by about 1,300 votes, but that has already narrowed to 426 in the latest tally, and tens of thousands of provisional and early ballots have yet to be counted. There is reason to believe they will favor Barber.

In 2010, then-Democratic Rep. Gabrielle Giffords (who Barber replaced) beat Republican Jesse Kelly by just over 12,000 in early voting and narrowly in the provisional ballots -- enough to win despite trailing in votes cast on Election Day. Barber pulled the same trick against Kelly in the June special election to replace Giffords.

In the 9th District, Democratic nominee Krysten Sinema holds a small lead over Republican Vernon Parker -- 2,715 votes. Sinema's campaign manager said that lead had grown from 600 in the morning as uncounted early and provisional ballots turned out to favor the Democrat.

Read More »

Meet the Guy Who Stopped Santa

By Alex Brown
November 8, 2012 | 3:14 p.m.
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Santa Claus is coming to Congress, but he won't make it in time for Christmas. That's thanks to David Curson, who defeated reindeer-ranching Republican Kerry Bentivolio, a Santa impersonator, in a special election to fill Michigan's 11th District seat from next week through the start of the new term. Bentivolio defeated physician Syed Taj in the full-term race and will be sworn in as the district's representative January 3. Former Rep. Thad McCotter resigned from the seat in July after his election petitions were found to be fraudulent.

Hotline on Call caught up with Curson on his plans for the lame-duck stint. Curson said the results of his close election have not yet been made official, but once the Clerk of the House receives a certificate of election, House Speaker John Boehner can swear him in. He anticipates that will happen Tuesday or Wednesday, but he's making the trip early to prepare for his short term. "I'm gonna drive down Saturday," Curson said. "I look like the Beverly Hillbillies; I got everything packed up in my pickup truck."

As for his living arrangements, he's getting by with a little help from a friend -- Dean of the House John Dingell. "Congressman Dingell graciously has offered me a room until I get my feet on the ground, a bed to sleep in," Curson said. He said he'll look for temporary housing or maybe a hotel or "I might just be a vagabond for seven weeks."

He said his relationships with members of the Michigan delegation -- Dingell, Democratic Sen. Carl Levin, and Reps. Gary Peters and John Conyers -- will be an asset as he tries to make a quick adjustment. Some of them have offered to loan him staffers so he's ready to "go to work on Day 1" without the usual distractions of getting settled in.

Those friendships were forged during Curson's years as a United Auto Workers negotiator, a position he says has him well-prepared for the dealings of the lame duck. "I've literally been involved in thousands of negotiations," Curson said. "In every (UAW) negotiation with the Big Three (automakers) -- I've literally been involved in every one since 1982." He also mentioned his role in helping secure loans that enabled President Obama's bailout of the auto industry.

Read More »

Flake's Lead Over Carmona Likely to Narrow

By Julie Sobel
November 8, 2012 | 2:47 p.m.
  • Leave a Comment

GOP Rep. Jeff Flake's win over Democratic former U.S. Surgeon General Richard Carmona was one of just two Republican victories in close Senate races, along with GOP Sen. Dean Heller's win in Nevada. But with reports that over 600,000 early and provisional votes are not yet counted, Carmona's team is closely watching as the ballots count marches on.

Flipping the outcome looks unlikely. Carmona's campaign would need about 55 percent of the outstanding ballots (if all the provisionals get counted) in order to overtake Flake's lead: The congressman currently leads by roughly 80,000 votes, 50.2 percent to 45.4 percent.

Two congressional races have yet to be called due to the high number of ballots that remain uncounted. In Arizona's 2nd District, Democratic Rep. Ron Barber is slightly behind GOP challenger Martha McSally. In the 9th, Democratic nominee Krysten Sinema holds a small lead over Republican Vernon Parker -- and it looks likely the Democrats will prevail in both districts.

Arizona Democrats say they've heard reports that the majority of the provisional ballots were being handed out in predominantly Latino neighborhoods. Exit polls showed 64 percent of non-white voters supporting Carmona.

Arizona law gives the counties 10 days to verify and process the outstanding early and provisional ballots, giving them until the end of next Friday. The next update in the ongoing count comes today at 5:00 p.m. Arizona time.

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Recent Posts

  • Petreaus, David Petreaus and the Author Who Shagged Me -- VIDEO
  • Petreaus, David Petreaus and the Author Who Shagged Me -- VIDEO
  • Krysten Sinema Winner in Arizona's 9th District
  • Update: The Six Unresolved House Races
  • The Petraeus Affair and A Powerless GOP -- VIDEO
  • Hotline Sort: No More Mack Attacks
  • What We Learned: It's All Over Now
  • Inslee Wins WA GOV Race
  • House Dems Barber, Bera Gain After More Canvassing
  • Previewing the Sunday Shows

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