John Murtha Dies At 77

Rep. John Murtha (D-PA 11) has died. He was 77.

The Johnstown-based Democrat had been in intensive care at Virginia Hospital Center after complications stemming from recent gallbladder surgery.

On 2/6, Murtha became the longest-serving Rep. in PA history. He was elected in 1974.

Murray Gets New Challenger

Long-time WA state Sen. Don Benton (R) will challenge Sen. Patty Murray (D-WA), giving GOPers their strongest challenger yet as he hopes to take a page from Sen. Scott Brown (R-MA).

Benton told the Seattle Times he's been inspired by Brown, who stunned Dems last month by winning Sen. Ted Kennedy's seat. He's been in office since '96 and, for a brief and tumultuous tenure, headed up the state GOP.

He gives GOPers a real candidate to get behind; so far, 6 others are running, though none are considered seriius contenders. But Murray remains an overwhelming front-runner as she seeks a 4th term. Murray had more than $5.1M in the bank at the end of the year.

GOPers are holding out hope for another candidate they are in the process of wooing. And Benton's entry into the race means he will not run for an open seat held by Rep. Brian Baird (D); he ran for the seat, unsuccessfully, in '98.

Obama Hits Lowest Approval Mark

Independent voters see Pres. Obama in a negative light by a nearly 2-1 margin, according to a new Marist College survey, while almost half of voters say he has failed to meet their expectations.

The poll, conducted Feb. 1-3, showed just 44% of registered voters approving of Obama's job as president. 47% disapprove. But among indie voters, Obama's approval rating sits at a terrible 29%, while his disapproval rating is at 57%.

Obama's 44% job approval rating is the lowest he has scored in any non-internet poll since moving into the WH, according to a review of data compiled by Pollster.com.

And while GOPers strive to avoid attacking Obama personally, for fear of offending voters who see him in a favorable light personally, even that aura of invincibility is wearing off. Independent voters view Obama negatively, too, by a 39% favorable to 52% unfavorable margin. All registered voters still see Obama favorably by a 50%-44% margin, but that's down 5 points in just 2 months.

Voters are disappointed in what they got with Obama's first year. The poll shows 47% believe Obama has failed to meet their expectations -- including a quarter of Dems, 65% of GOPers and 53% of indie voters -- while just 42% say he has met their expectations. 38% say Obama's policies are moving the country in the wrong direction, while 37% say they're making the country better.

Meanwhile, members of Congress should brace for a difficult election year. 42% of registered voters said they would back their current member of Congress, while 44% said they would support someone else -- a drop of 9 points in support of the incumbent in just 2 months.

The Marist College poll surveyed 910 registered voters for a margin of error of +/- 3.2%.

Tea Partier Set For House Bid

A well-known favorite of the Tea Party movement is planning to announce a House bid Monday, setting up a challenge to an NRCC-favored candidate.

Fox News analyst Angela McGlowan will announce her bid against Rep. Travis Childers (D-MS) today in Oxford. She will face state Sen. Alan Nunnelee (R) and ex-Eupora Mayor Henry Ross (R) in the June 1 primary.

Before announcing her bid, McGlowan addressed the National Tea Party Convention in Nashville this weekend. She strongly hinted at her impending bid and won a quick endorsement from WorldNetDaily editor in chief Joseph Farah, who spoke after her.

McGlowan's candidacy will put the NRCC in an awkward spot. Nunnelee is a highly-touted recruit, and he's already been promoted to the "Contender" tier of the "Young Guns" program. Inclusion among the Young Guns does not denote an endorsement -- several members face each other in primaries -- but the NRCC has long been optimistic about Nunnelee.

"We welcome her to the race. Obviously, Sen. Nunnelee has been in there for a while and has turned out to be one of the best candidates for us this cycle," said NRCC spokesperson Andy Sere. "They'll have a primary, and Northern Mississippi voters will decide."

Privately, GOP sources question how serious McGlowan's candidacy will be. She has been a lobbyist for Steve Wynn's gambling empire -- something that won't be as acceptable to voters in the northern-based 1st district as it would be to voters in the state's gambling-friendly coast.

Plus, she's from the wrong part of the district. Childers represents an area stretching from the Memphis suburbs in the west to Tupelo in the east. McGlowan's base in Oxford is in a less populated area. And GOPers who favor Nunnelee already have opposition research featuring some of McGlowan's past interviews.

McGlowan will make her announcement tour with stops in Corinth, Tupelo, Columbus and Hernando during the week.

Dems Buying In To DSCC, DCCC

Dem senators know they face trouble, but unlike earlier years, they are circling the wagons and defending each other.

The DSCC has received $3.2M in transfers from its members, CQ-Roll Call's David Drucker reports, giving the party ample funds to defend its incumbents and open seats and to pursue some of the GOP-held open seats this fall.

Sen. Kent Conrad (D-ND) leads the way, having given $315K so far. Senate Maj. Whip Dick Durbin has given $265K, and even Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-CT) has chipped in $200K.

And more may be coming; Sen. Byron Dorgan (D-ND), who announced last month he would not seek another term, gave $100K in Jan., but he had more than $4M left in the bank as of the end of the year. Sen. Chris Dodd (D-CT), who also said he would not run again last month, still has $3.3M CoH.

Member buy-in is something Dems have pushed since '94, when the party's sinking fortunes led many to hoard their cash in order to save themselves. Now, as the party faces another difficult election cycle, they need all the cash they can get to defend vulnerable incumbents, and to stay on offense wherever they can.

The DCCC is also getting significant member buy-in, according to a Hotline On Call analysis. The party has strict minimums of what members should donate, with different levels for leadership, committee chairs, subcommittee chairs and members of the so-called "A" committees.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi leads the way, having donated $850K, with Maj. Leader Steny Hoyer kicking in $785K and Maj. Whip Jim Clyburn giving $585K. Dem Caucus chair John Larson (D-CT) and Rep. Xavier Becerra (D-CA), a rising star in the House, have already contributed $400K each from their own funds. And committee chairs George Miller (D-CA), Barney Frank (D-MA) and Henry Waxman (D-CA) have handed over $325K, $300K and $300K respectively. DCCC chair Chris Van Hollen, who has guided his party to strong financial position, gave $320K to his own cause.

GOPers have seen much less buy-in from members. Drucker reports the NRSC has received $931K from its members, while the NRCC has seen transfers of more than $100K from just 7 members, according to the latest FEC reports. House Min. Leader John Boehner is the only member to have given more than $200K; he has donated $555K so far, records show.

GOP donations waned over the last 2 cycles as the party faced troubling electoral circumstances. More members decided to keep their cash for themselves in order to defend their own seats, rather than contribute to the national effort.

But now, those donations are going to become crucial if the GOP is to maximize its electoral prospects. At the moment, the DCCC has $16.7M in the bank and $2M in debt, while the NRCC has just $2.67M on hand. Without significant member buy-in, especially from those members who may not face a serious challenge, the GOP could very easily leave a significant number of Dem-held seats on the table.

Monday's Starting Lineup

Good Monday morning. Who dat say dey gonna beat dem Saints? Wonder how Rep. Anh "Joseph" Cao (R-LA), the lone GOPer invited to the WH for the Super Bowl, felt last night -- cheering his boys on while surrounded by Dems angling to take his seat back this Nov.

Here's Monday's snowy Starting Lineup, previewing the people who will make headlines today:

IL GOV. PAT QUINN: Quinn saved his re-election chances, and very possibly his entire party's ticket, when pawn broker/businessman Scott Lee Cohen (D) announced yesterday he would drop his bid to become IL LG.

Cohen won a surprise victory in the 2/2 primary, but since allegations of his checkered past have hit the papers, he's been under tremendous pressure to step down and call off his bid. Now, he's done so, and Dems everywhere can breathe a sigh of relief. That's because in IL, unlike in many states, the gov. and the LG run separately in the primary but together in a general election. Quinn, already facing a Dem Party split by a vicious primary, would have had to overcome a perhaps fatally wounded running mate as well -- a tough feat under any circumstances.

It's been a bad year for IL Dems all around. The saga surrounding Sen. Roland Burris (D) notwithstanding, the party has had to deal with contested GOV and SEN primaries, a damaged LG candidate, a SEN nominee with baggage GOPers will try and exploit and a GOV nominee who is decidedly outside the machine. With at least 3 targeted House seats in Dem control, the state could prove to be a boon for GOPers.

EX-AK GOV. SARAH PALIN: How could she not make the Starting Lineup today? Her major speech in Nashville this Saturday featured every possible major attack line against Pres. Obama, from health care to national security to jobs and the environment. Cheat sheet or not, Palin looked and sounded like a WH candidate -- all the more so when she told Fox News' Chris Wallace the next day she "would be willing" to run in '12 "if I believe that it's right for the country."

So much for subtlety. While MN Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R), ex-MA Gov. Mitt Romney (R) and other possible WH'12 contenders insist they are focused on the '10 midterms, Palin is diving right in and doing her best to take control of the Tea Party movement. It would give her a powerful springboard for the '12 campaign, nut we have yet to see evidence of Palin helping many other GOP candidates, a key early step if she's going to make a bid.

Continue reading "Monday's Starting Lineup" »

Landrieu Wins NoLA Mayor's Race

'94/'06 candidate/LG Mitch Landrieu (D) won the New Orleans mayoral race on Saturday, becoming the city's first white mayor since his father, Moon Landrieu, left office 32 years ago. Landrieu captured 66% of the vote, besting the five other major candidates and avoiding the expected runoff.

"The people of the city of New Orleans did an extraordinary thing today. They decided to stick a pole in the ground. ... The city decided to be unified rather than divided," Landrieu said in his victory speech tonight. "We took a huge leap forward today, and we showed America what it takes to rebuild."

"We're not leaving anybody behind," Landrieu continued. "This campaign was about a lot of things, about all of us coming together to make sure our city is safe, about making sure every child has a right to learn. ... This campaign was about making sure all men and women ... have an opportunity to get a great job. Most importantly, the people of New Orleans understand it has fallen on our shoulders to serve."

Landrieu entered the race late, announcing his candidacy in December, but as the biggest name in the contest - in addition to being the son of the ex-mayor, Landrieu is the brother of Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-LA) - Landrieu quickly shot up in the polls. He narrowly lost the '06 contest to incumbent Mayor Ray Nagin (D).

Still, observers did not expect that Landrieu would capture the office in the first shot, as runoffs have been necessary in every election not featuring an incumbent since New Orleans started its open-primary system in '75. Either businessman John Georges (D), who put $3.4M of his own money in his camp, or businessman Troy Henry (D), who put $500K of his own money in his camp, were expected to capture enough votes to force a runoff. Henry ended up with 14% of the vote, while Georges got 9%.

A record-breaking 16K early votes were cast, and there was a strong showing at the polls today, even though observers expected low turnout because of this weekend's distractions of Mardi Gras festivities and the Saint's Super Bowl debut.

"About 3 minutes ago I got a text message from Rita Benson LeBlanc and she said, 'The people of the city did their part, now it's time for us to do ours,'" Landrieu said in his victory speech, referencing the Saints' part owner. "Right now, what we're going to do is get ready for the Saints to take it all the way and bring the Super Bowl home for us!"

Landrieu will take office May 6. Gov. Bobby Jindal (R) will appoint a new LG, subject to the approval of two-thirds of both houses of the Legislature, to be in office until a new LG can be elected through special election. The LG special election primary will be held 10/2 and the general will be 11/2

Dead Women Can't Talk

In this a.m.'s New York Times' Dowd column, ex-Rep. Harold Ford, Jr. (D-TN) said, "I'm not comparing myself to Bobby Kennedy by any stretch, but he was opposed by the liberal establishment, too, Eleanor Roosevelt was the biggest opponent to him running."

It seems on odd statement, seeing as Eleanor Roosevelt died in '62, two years before Kennedy's '64 SEN election. In the year of her death, Kennedy was JFK's AG and was pre-occupied with the Cuban Missile Crisis and Civil Rights, and per most biographies, a Senate seat was hardly on Kennedy's agenda.

In fact, in Evan Thomas' biography, "Robert F. Kennedy: His Life," spring '64 was the first mention of the NY Senate seat as a possibility, along with MA GOV. And even then, Kennedy only seriously began to consider a SEN run after failed efforts to position himself as LBJ's VP in the '64 race.

Thomas' book -- a much respected, scholarly and modern look at Kennedy -- does not even have Eleanor Roosevelt listed in the index. Hotline OnCall was unable to locate a documented instance of Roosevelt going on the record in opposition to Kennedy.

But according to Thomas, Kennedy, did however, meet "resistance" from various liberal constituencies in New York, including "Jewish reformers" who remembered his father's Anti-Semitism and the New York Times' edit board.

Efforts to reach Ford for comment have so far been unsuccessful.

Specter Endorsed By PA Dems

Sen. Arlen Specter (D-PA) won endorsement from the PA Dem Party Saturday, clinching a supermajority of votes at a winter party meeting.

Specter, who ran for re-election as a GOPer just 6 years ago, won 77% of the vote among PA Dems leaders, well over the 2/3rds threshold needed to claim the endorsement.

The party's nod "is a big boost to my campaign. I will run a vigorous campaign to retain this U.S. Senate seat and help all Democrats up and down the ballot," Specter said.

His main rival, Rep. Joe Sestak (D), cast the endorsement as a hat tip from the establishment -- an establishment Sestak is running against.

"The establishment has long made it known that it struck a deal to anoint the long-time Republican Senator," Sestak's camp said in their own statement. Sestak's backers "have found that Pennsylvanians are tired of business as usual and are ready to turn the page on a generation of deal-making done to maintain the status quo."

"At the debate last night, Senator Specter said he supports the 'basic values of the Democratic Party' after he spent the last 30 years voting against them. Joe Sestak actually believes in our Democratic principles because he believes in our working families," Sestak's team added.

Dems Double Down On Health Care

Pres. Obama signaled Saturday he will continue the fight for health care reform, just days after his party lost its filibuster-proof majority in the Senate.

Speaking to a semi-annual meeting of the DNC at a snowed-in DC hotel, Obama said he would continue the fight, drawing sustained applause from members even as some in Congress seek to shelve legislation that has become a burden on the party's political standing.

"There's some, maybe even a majority in this town, who say, 'Perhaps it's time to walk away,'" Obama said. "Let me be clear: I am not going to walk away from health care insurance reform."

In an email to supporters, Organizing for America, the WH's political arm, urged passage of the legislation and asked for letters to the editor and engagement in social media.

"This isn't a problem we can kick down the road for another decade -- or even another year. We need to pass health reform now," OFA exec. dir. Mitch Stewart wrote. "We're incredibly close. But too many in Washington are now saying that we should delay or give up on reform entirely. So we need to make it crystal clear that Americans understand the stakes for our economy and our lives, and that we want action."

In his 22-minute address at the Capitol Hilton hotel, Obama acknowledged an anger among American voters. "Of course people are frustrated, and they have every right to be," he said.

Amid a snowstorm that has walloped much of the Mid-Atlantic, and with DC especially hard-hit, Obama tipped his hat to "snowmageddon," as he called it. And, he told delegates, his admin had stumbled, but even "against a blizzard ... we're going to live up to our responsibility to lead."

Boozman Makes Bid Official

Rep. John Boozman (R) made official on Saturday his bid against Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR), giving GOPers a top-tier candidate against one of the most vulnerable Dems up for re-election this year.

Speaking to supporters in Little Rock, Boozman cited Dem leaders in an attempt to tie Lincoln to the unpopular national party, even as Lincoln has sought to distance herself from Pres. Obama, Senate Maj. Leader Harry Reid and Speaker Nancy Pelosi.

"After visiting with Arkansans it is clear that we need leadership in the U.S. Senate that represents the interests of our state and its residents," Boozman said, according to remarks provided by his campaign. "I am concerned that the Obama-Pelosi-Reid agenda of borrowing and spending our way to prosperity is too costly for our country."

Boozman will speak to supporters at his campaign headquarters in Lowell later today. He will head to Ft. Smith, on the OK border, tomorrow.

But Boozman won't have a clean shot at Lincoln. He still faces a number of GOP candidates who have been in the race for months. On Saturday, one of those candidates signaled he would paint Boozman as a creature of DC.

"Washington isn't listening to the people, but I hear you loud and clear," state Sen. Gilbert Baker (R) said in a statement released today. "Arkansans are looking for leaders who will be part of the solution, not those who have been part of the problem. I am firmly committed to running for U.S. Senate to put an end to the status quo in our nation's capitol."

Polls have shown Boozman, Baker and most other GOP candidates leading Lincoln by wide margins.

Dems Build Ohio Firewall

Since Sen. John Kerry's (D-MA) Buckeye State bummer in the '04 pres. election against Pres. Bush, the Ohio Democratic Party (ODP) has gone on steroids.

After building an aggressive organization for the '06 midterms that continued into the '08 pres. election, the state party continued to grow and has ballooned into the largest Dem organization in the country, behind only the DNC and DCCC. Now approaching 70 staffers on its payroll, the ODP has 15 regional field directors spread out over the state's 88 counties and plans to double that by the end of March. Late last year, the party moved its headquarters from an old building across from the state Capitol to a bigger, newer facility several blocks away to house its expansive staff and new technology.

Said ODP executive director Doug Kelly, "By keeping Ohio Democratic in 2010, Ohio will be the firewall for Pres. Obama's re-election in 2012."

An ODP document notes that the importance of the state to the Electoral College grows even more critical after this year's census: "Projections suggest that Democratic stronghold states will lose as many as 8 electoral votes to growing Sunbelt-area states, giving the GOP nominee another Kentucky or a second South Carolina just from the reapportionment of the Electoral College." It further predicts the party is unlikely to hold FL, IN, NC or VA in the next pres. cycle, and that Obama would have to carry nearly all of the remaining states he flipped in '08, if not Ohio, to win re-election, given these projections.

To keep its momentum rolling, the ODP has been deploying staffers all across the state for a road show known as the "Knockout" program. The program aims to "knockout the Republicans for the next decade [by] motivating activists to get involved early and often." They've given 9 presentations on the ODP's "strategic blueprint" in the last few months and reached more than 2,000 activists, including, they note, 236 people in Akron. That's "twice the crowd that VP-candidate Joe Biden got at the same union hall in September 2008," according to an ODP staffer.

The ODP plans to hold these "Knockout" events in all 88 counties, and in doing so, they're lengthening their volunteer list. What's more, ODP field staffers say they're supplying those volunteers with access to some of their best data to make them most effective now.

National Dems appear to agree with Kelly's pronouncement to put a continued emphasis in Ohio: Jay Howser, among the most respected campaign managers in the party, was dispatched to OH last week to boost LG Lee Fisher's (D) SEN bid. Fisher has just $1.8M CoH, compared to likely GOP opponent/ex-Rep. Rob Portman's $6M.

Howser headed Sen. Mary Landrieu's (D-LA) '08 re-election bid and in the process effectively took the state off the GOP's target list. He was tasked next with rescuing Sen. Chris Dodd's (D-CT) race, though Dodd's challenges proved so insurmountable that Dem strategists decided retirement was wisest.

Continue reading "Dems Build Ohio Firewall" »

Favorite Candidates Have Rough Week

From demon sheep to a series of campaign flubs, this hasn't been a good week for 2 prominent GOP Senate candidates -- even as the party talks, for the first time, about the prospect of taking back the majority in the upper chamber.

But problems both ex-HP CEO Carly Fiorina (R) and ex-NH AG Kelly Ayotte (R) faced this week mask a deeper truth: Their nominations aren't the foregone conclusions they once seemed.

Fiorina's ad team was widely mocked this week for a web ad in which she compared her opponent, ex-Rep. Tom Campbell (R), to a demon sheep. And a roll-out of endorsements gave reporters a chance to question Ayotte's role in a legal opinion that has come under fire.

In both cases, GOPers are becoming worried that their favorite candidates aren't performing well against primary rivals. Fiorina's camp has been hammering Campbell on his fiscal record, suggesting their internal numbers mirror public polls, which show Campbell out ahead. The latest survey, from PPIC, shows Campbell leading with 27%, Fiorina at 16% and Assemb. Chuck DeVore (R) at 8%.

DeVore has not raised much money so far, and Campbell only recently abandoned his GOV bid in favor of a SEN race. But Fiorina's own campaign spent $830K and raised just over $1M, and only turned in a good financial performance because of a $2.5M loan the candidate gave her campaign.

GOPers in NH are increasingly worried that Ayotte's campaign is floundering. One of her opponents, businessman Bill Binnie (R), has already run TV ads and another, businessman Jim Bender (R), will go on the air next week. Ayotte raised less than Rep. Paul Hodes (D), the likely Dem nominee, and her team acknowledges they had a rough start as a campaign. A new poll in the state due out today will show her losing ground -- but still leading -- '96 Gov. nominee Ovide Lamontagne (R).

Now, Ayotte is aiming to carve out a niche among conservatives. Her campaign sees the race as between herself and Binnie, reasoning that Lamontagne won't have the financial resources to compete in the long term. Ayotte's camp launched its first ad this week, a $15K radio ad buy aimed at conservative stations in the state. And, a source close to the campaign points out, they have a far larger slice of on-the-ground support than any other candidate -- something that matters in a retail politics state like NH.

Both the Ayotte camp and the NRSC say they are pleased with how the campaign is progressing.

The NRSC has not formally endorsed either Ayotte or Fiorina, but they clearly favor the 2. NRSC chair John Cornyn's PAC has given $10K to Ayotte, and the NRSC has formed a joint fundraising committee with Fiorina (though they say they are willing to form the committee with any candidate who asks).

Other NRSC-favored candidates aren't doing especially well either. KY Sec/State Trey Grayson (R) has less money in the bank than ophthalmologist Rand Paul (R), and FL Gov. Charlie Crist (R) -- the only NRSC-endorsed candidate in the country -- now trails ex-FL House Speaker Marco Rubio (R) in polls.

But each of the 4 candidates have a long time before their state's primaries, and none are doomed. After all, it's not the first time an NRSC-favored candidate has faced a challenge; Rep. Mark Kirk (R-IL) had to go through atty Patrick Hughes (R) before he secured the IL GOP nomination for Sen. Roland Burris's (D) seat. Earlier this week, Kirk beat Hughes by a 57%-19% margin.

Gallup's State Of The State Report

Who loves Pres. Obama? His native state of HI is the biggest fan, while WY has the most negative view, according to yearly totals from Gallup's daily tracking polls.

Meanwhile, MD and MA should be the best states for Dems. More people in MD call themselves Dems than anywhere else, while more MA residents say they are liberal. More GOPers live in WY than anywhere else, while the most conservatives call AL home.

An aggregation from all Gallup Daily tracking polls conducted in '09; surveyed 291,152 adults total; margin of error +/- 0.01%. Obama approval conducted 1/21/09-12/31/09; surveyed 170,370 adults; margin of error +/- 0.01% (releases, 2/1-5).

-      PARTY ID   IDEOLOGY      OBAMA    OBAMA     
STATE  DEM GOP   LIB MOD CON   APPROVE DISAPPROVE
AL     40% 46%   15% 32% 49%   49%     43%
AK     33  49    20  36  41    46      43
AZ     43  41    20  37  40    55      37
AR     47  37    16  36  44    49      40
CA     51  32    25  38  33    64      26
CO     46  39    21  38  37    52      39
CT     53  30    24  41  31    67      27
DE     53  32    19  40  37    61      29
DC     78  12    36  37  22    90       7
FL     46  39    19  37  39    57      35
GA     45  41    18  36  42    56      36
HI     54  28    26  43  27    71      22
ID     35  50    16  36  46    43      47
IL     54  32    23  39  35    65      27
IN     46  40    18  39  41    55      35
IA     48  36    20  37  41    58      33
KS     42  43    19  38  41    51      39
KY     48  39    18  38  40    53      38
LA     44  42    14  34  48    50      41
ME     48  35    24  37  36    59      32
MD     58  31    24  39  33    69      25
MA     57  28    29  37  30    67      26
MI     50  35    21  38  38    60      31
MN     49  37    22  37  38    62      30
MS     42  44    14  34  48    52      40
MO     47  37    19  39  39    56      36
MT     41  44    19  35  43    48      42
NE     41  44    18  38  41    50      40
NV     45  39    23  37  37    56      35
NH     46  39    23  36  39    55      37
NJ     51  33    25  39  33    63      30
NM     49  36    21  34  41    56      34
NY     54  31    26  38  32    67      25
NC     47  38    18  38  41    55      35
ND     41  42    16  37  45    55      40
OH     48  38    19  39  39    55      36
OK     45  44    15  36  46    48      42
OR     51  35    26  37  33    58      32
PA     50  38    20  38  39    57      33
RI     56  25    23  44  30    67      25
SC     43  42    18  34  45    56      36
SD     45  43    16  36  44    56      36
TN     45  40    17  36  44    52      39
TX     40  42    17  36  44    52      38
UT     31  52    16  36  46    48      41
VT     55  29    28  41  29    68      24
VA     47  39    19  39  39    58      34
WA     49  35    26  37  34    58      32
WV     53  34    17  41  38    46      41
WI     48  36    20  39  38    58      33
WY     32  54    16  38  44    42      45

Check out more, along with sortable lists and a cool clickable map, at Gallup.com.

Weekend Lineup

Here are the scheduled guests for the Sunday public affairs shows and other weekend programs:

SUNDAY

Meet the Press hosts dep. NSA John Brennan, ex-Fed Chair Alan Greenspan and ex-Treas. Sec. Henry Paulson. The roundtable will feature ex-RNC Chair/ex-WH counselor Ed Gillespie and ex-WH press sec. DeeDee Myers.

Face the Nation hosts NFL commis. Roger Goodell. The roundtable will feature CBS' Jim Nantz, Shannon Sharpe and Phil Simms.

This Week hosts Treas. Sec. Tim Geithner. The roundtable will feature Washington Post's George Will, Wall Street Journal's Peggy Noonan, Washington Post's Ruth Marcus, Center for American Progress pres./Obama WH transition co-chair/ex-Clinton WH CoS John Podesta and Bloomberg's Al Hunt.

Fox News Sunday hosts ex-AK Gov. Sarah Palin (R). The roundtable will feature FNC Washington managing editor Bill Sammon, Weekly Standard's Bill Kristol, NPR's Mara Liasson and NPR's Juan Williams.

State of the Union hosts Sec/State Hillary Clinton (see below for guests on SOTU's Reliable Sources segment).

See other weekend shows after the jump.

Continue reading "Weekend Lineup " »

Pawlenty To Nevada

MN Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R) will be in Las Vegas late this month to headline a major annual gala in a key early pres. nominating state.

Pawlenty will headline the NV GOP's Lincoln Day Dinner on Feb. 27, the party announced today. It will be Pawlenty's first trip to the state as a potential WH contender, and the latest since he began raising his political profile last fall.

The speech will either be drowned out or amplified; Pres. Obama will be in Las Vegas for a fundraiser for Senate Maj. Leader Harry Reid. Pawlenty has spent months lambasting Obama for spending too much. Cable nets could love the contrast of the possible WH'12 rivals giving opposing speeches.

In a cheeky note on his Facebook page announcing the trip, Pawlenty took another jab at Obama, who earlier this week had to apologize for an apparently disparraging remark about Las Vegas.

"Governor Pawlenty will defy President Obama's orders and go to Vegas on February 27 for the Nevada GOP dinner. Goal is to replace Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid with a Senator who values the needs of Nevadans more than the partisan interests of his political party," the note on Pawlenty's Facebook page read.

So far, Pawlenty has hit events in IA and NH, and his PAC filed reports over the weekend showing he had raised $1.28M in the new group's first quarter. Pawlenty gave almost $17K to candidates during the quarter.

Ayotte Leads Hodes, But Hodes Has Lynch

Ex-NH AG Kelly Ayotte (R) leads her Dem rival in the race for retiring Sen. Judd Gregg's (R) seat, but her lead in the GOP primary is by no means assured, according to a new poll.

The survey, conducted Feb. 1-3 by Research 2000 for the liberal DailyKos website, polled 600 LVs for a margin of error of +/- 4%. An oversample of 400 GOP voters had a margin of error of +/- 5%. Ayotte, businessman Bill Binnie (R) and atty/'96 GOV nominee Ovide Lamontagne were tested against Rep. Paul Hodes (D). In the GOV race, Gov. John Lynch (D) matched up against businessman Jack Kimball (R).

Primary Election Matchup  GOV General Election Matchup
Ayotte           36%      Lynch            59%
Lamontagne       27       Kimball          13
Binnie            4

SEN General Election Matchups
Ayotte           46       Hodes            46%
Hodes            39       Lamontagne       36
Hodes            45
Binnie           35

Ayotte holds a 47%-35% lead over Hodes among independent candidates and a big 55%-28% lead in the 1st CD. In Hodes' 2nd CD, he has a 50%-37% head start.

But Ayotte has a ways to go, and her opponents have made clear they won't be pushovers. Ayotte's 9-point lead over Lamontagne, who has sought to portray himself as the conservative alternative to the ex-AG, shows Lamontagne will play a role even if his early fundraising has been disappointing.

Meanwhile, Binnie started advertising late last month, and he has committed hundreds of thousands to his initial round of advertising. Already, he has a 31% fav/30% unfav rating, according to the poll. That could make him a factor down the line as he challenges Ayotte on fiscal conservative grounds, though he is admittedly more socially centrist than his rivals.

The good news for Hodes: Gov. Lynch is still popular. Lynch, who has to run every 2 years, has the best machine in the state, and it will be a valuable asset for Hodes as they both seek election this fall.

Five Ways The Tea Party Movement May Fail

Tea Partiers' efforts to make a national impact could fall short for a variety of reasons. Folding the movement into the GOP could alienate independents and disaffected Dems who are otherwise in line with the group's objectives. More on this in the video below. Click here or the full list of ways the Tea Party could lose momentum, and here for NationalJournal.com's ongoing series on the uprising.

Pence Hits Granite State

House GOP Conference chair Mike Pence will continue his tour of early pres. nominating states with a stop in NH next month, after hitting IA and SC last year.

Pence will be the keynote speaker at the Hillsborough Co. GOP's Lincoln-Reagan dinner in Bedford on Mar. 19. NH GOP chair/ex-Gov. John H. Sununu will also be at the dinner.

Pence is back on the pres. trail after briefly flirting with a SEN bid. 2 weeks ago, Pence met with Senate GOPers as he considered challenging Sen. Evan Bayh (D), though he eventually declined to make a bid.

But it has been his travel to early states that has gotten the most attention. In Oct., Pence held SC fundraisers for Reps. Gresham Barrett (R) and Henry Brown (R) and met with a group of about 100 activists in Charleston. Earlier, he traveled to IA for meetings with more activists.

Pence's team publicly denies he is thinking of anything other than winning back House seats in '10, but they have done little to tamp down speculation about a WH bid. GOP aides in other offices on Capitol Hill take the notion of a Pence candidacy seriously, even if they would not support him.

Tiahrt: Rival Moran Is "Timid"

Rep. Todd Tiahrt (R) sharpened his attacks on his GOP primary opponent on Thursday, offering the harshest assessment of Rep. Jerry Moran (R) as the 2 heat up their bids for an open Senate seat.

"We can't afford to have a timid senator that won't accomplish anything," Tiahrt said in an interview with Hotline OnCall. When asked if he meant to imply that Moran was "timid," Tiahrt said yes. "He is timid. He won't get out in front of the issues. He won't get things done for the state."

"You can't just have somebody that's timid and is nothing more than a smile and a handshake," said Tiahrt. He accused Moran of being a "flat-bottom sail boat" that goes with the wind. "But I have a political rudder," Tiahrt said, "and I use the winds to get things done, to get where I want to go."

Moran spokesperson Dan Lara defended his boss in a statement delivered to Hotline OnCall.

"Jerry Moran is far from timid. Timid individuals do not get re-elected by wide margins as Jerry has done throughout his time in the House. Timid individuals do not garner the broad support of Kansans, as Jerry has consistently done in this election for the Senate, as proven by independent polls and an almost 3-to-1 advantage in fundraising," Lara said. "Jerry's campaign has wide and growing appeal, which is the mark of a principled, proven leader."

But Tiahrt, a businessman before coming to Congress, dismissed Moran for his lack of real-world experience. "I think it's because he doesn't have any business experience," Tiahrt said. "He hasn't been responsible for explaining how business works or how a company makes payroll."

In the private sector, Moran worked as an attorney, bank officer and professor before being elected to the House in '96.

The sharpened tone comes after several public polls have shown Moran with a significant, but not insurmountable, lead. Tiahrt said that with 25 weeks to go before the primary, he isn't taking stock in current polls. He is instead counting on conservative grass-root activists, like the Tea Partiers, to advocate for him and turn out on Election Day.

"I consider myself part of the Tea Party movement," said Tiahrt. "Absolutely. Those are voices of people who are politically active and they're upset because we're borrowing money we don't have and spending money on programs we don't need."

Continue reading "Tiahrt: Rival Moran Is "Timid"" »

The Sorting Table -- Great Scott!

Biden Downplays Losing 60th Vote

VP Biden administered the oath of office to Sen. Scott Brown (R-MA) last p.m., sealing the loss of Senate Dems' filibuster-proof majority and giving GOPers their eagerly awaited 41st seat in the upper chamber.

Biden downplayed the impact of Dems' lost supermajority, casting blame on the way business is now done in the Senate, in which 60 votes are necessary to get virtually any legislation passed.

"I keep reminding everybody: the day the president and I got sworn in, we had 58 Democratic senators," Biden said. "We briefly had 60 Democratic senators. And so, you know, the idea from the beginning, our game plan wasn't based upon that we needed to have a supermajority of 60 votes."

"There's a little disappointment in that it seems like the only way to do business up here anymore is with a supermajority, on almost everything," Biden said.

He called the filibuster "legitimate" and a "useful tool," but suggested its current use has gone beyond its original intent. "Having been elected seven times, I've never seen a time when it's become sort of standard operating procedure," he said. "[If] you want to get anything done, you have to have a supermajority."

"I don't know what the answer is," Biden continued. "All I'm saying is that I hope that cooler heads start to prevail and that people sort of reflect a little bit more on what this means."

Even with the filibuster intact, Biden remains optimistic Dems can pass health care reform after Brown was sworn in.

"I think the prospects are still good, but we're going to talk to our Republican colleagues and the Republican leadership," Biden said, adding that he's "confident" Obama will invite the GOP leadership to the WH to hear out their ideas on health care.

"There's multiple layers of cynicism that've been built up over the last eight to ten years about the ability of us to function," Biden said when asked to analyze the MA SEN results. The admin has heard that message, he added.

"We get it. We understand the frustration," Biden said. "But I think part of the frustration also is that, you know, let the system work."

Just how exactly Brown -- who has said that he comes to DC not as a solid GOP vote but as an independent voice -- will fit into that system remains to be seen.

Continue reading "Biden Downplays Losing 60th Vote" »

Hotline After Dark -- Big Pay-lin Off

"World News" led with the arrest of Americans in Haiti on child trafficking charges. "Evening News" led with the economy. "Nightly News" led with the Toyota recall.

Tea Party convo. organizer Judson Phillips went "On the Record" 2/4 p.m.

FNC's Van Susteren: "I don't know if it's true or not, but that Governor Palin's getting paid $100,000 for her speech, and there's some objection within the Tea Party movement to the $100,000. She's now saying that it's going to go back to the movement. I guess one way would be to simply to be to refuse the payment. But how is it going back to the tea party movement, do you know?"

Phillips: "I can't really answer anything related to that. I just really don't know."

Van Susteren: "Is it because you don't know or because you won't answer it?"

Phillips: "I cannot speak for Governor Palin. I don't know what she's going to do. When you get a speaker in of the caliber of Governor Palin, you have an agreement. It's not simply done on a handshake. Part of that agreement includes a confidentiality clause. I cannot speak about it. I won't speak about it. And Governor Palin has spoken about it, and I defer all those questions to her."

Van Susteren: "Is it true some members of the national tea party movement have withdrawn or they're not at the convention, decided not to go because of that? Is it that much of a controversy within the tea party movement?"

After the jump, more Phillips, part 2 of Comedy Central's Jon Stewart's appearance on the "O'Reilly Factor," and Rep. Anthony Weiner (D-NY) has harsh words for Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-CT).

Continue reading "Hotline After Dark -- Big Pay-lin Off" »

Friday's Starting Lineup

Good Friday morning. Who's ready for Snowpocalypse part II? If you're not, start hoarding quickly.

Here's Friday's Starting Lineup, previewing the newsmakers who will lead the headlines this weekend:

SEN. RICHARD SHELBY: The AL GOPer wants earmarks for his home state, and he's willing to make some noise to do so. Shelby has holds on more than 70 nominations, according to Senate Maj. Leader Harry Reid, in an effort to get concessions from the WH and the Pentagon over air tankers, along with other defense-related matters that would bring jobs to AL.

Reid and Senate Dems can file cloture on the nominees, but doing so is a time-consuming process, and with a jobs bill on the way, the Senate has other priorities. A year into his term, many holes remain in Pres. Obama's admin, and it's becoming a frustrating situation; Obama himself brought up the slow confirmation pace at a meeting with Senate Dems earlier this week.

But the GOP has signaled it has no intention of dropping holds on nominees. Sen. Scott Brown (R-MA), sworn in yesterday, showed up a week before originally scheduled not because he wanted to vote on the jobs bill, but to give GOPers the ability to block SEIU counsel Craig Becker, who Obama has nominated to serve on the NRLB.

BIPARTISANSHIP: In an effort to get the economy moving again, and coming just days after the Dow briefly dipped below 10K for the first time in 3 months, the Senate will take up a jobs package next week in what will become the first effort to build a bipartisan consensus now that Dems lack a filibuster-proof majority.

The bill will contain a mix of tax breaks for companies that hire new workers, extensions of unemployment benefits and new spending to create jobs. The tax break idea comes from a proposal first offered by the unlikely duo of Sens. Chuck Schumer (D-NY) and Orrin Hatch (R-UT). House Dems are less supportive of the measure, but they will find it hard to resist passing a package that won bipartisan support in the upper chamber.

Continue reading "Friday's Starting Lineup" »

Kirk Pushes Kennedy Legacy

Sen. Paul Kirk (D-MA) gave the final floor speech of his short tenure this p.m., urging a Senate chamber absent of GOPers to work toward bipartisanship and the goal of health care reform long championed by the man he was appointed to replace, the late Sen. Ted Kennedy (D-MA).

Addressing an audience of about 15 of his Dem colleagues as well as about 25 of Kennedy's staffers, who lined the wall behind him, Kirk delivered an emotional appeal a little over an hour before his elected successor, Sen.-elect Scott Brown (R-MA), would be sworn in.

"Following the election results of the Massachusetts special two weeks ago, it was suggested that we let the dust settle before deciding on our next steps" on health care reform, Kirk said. "But we must not let so much dust settle that it buries all the sensible and necessary ideas that have been suggested."

"Comprehensive health care reform must remain an urgent priority for the 111th Congress," he said.

In a nod to Brown's message that he would come to DC as the 41st vote to break Dems' hold on a Senate supermajority, Kirk warned GOPers not to "misread" the results of the MA SEN race as a mandate to block the Dem agenda.

"Will the Democratic majority, despite its still-solid numerical advantage, be forced to cling to a 60-vote strategy as the only path toward progress, on matters small and large, procedural as well as substantive?" Kirk asked. "Will the Republican minority misread the Massachusetts results as vindication of a strategy to just say no to any measure proposed by the Democratic president of the United States or by their colleagues on this side of the aisle?"

"The United States Senate is in need of its own form of climate change," he added.

Kirk, who was sworn in as interim sen. in late Sep. after being appointed by MA Gov. Deval Patrick (D), contrasted the role of sen. to his previous role as DNC chair. Kirk served as head of the party from '85 to '89.

Continue reading "Kirk Pushes Kennedy Legacy" »

RNC Fills Communications Director Gap

The RNC will bring on veteran GOP communicator Doug Heye to serve as communications director, a source close to the decision confirms to Hotline OnCall.

Heye served in the same position for RNC chair Michael Steele during Steele's run against Sen. Ben Cardin (D-MD) in '06 and is close to the chair. Before that, Heye led Sen. Richard Burr's comms shop.

He has close relationships with both NRSC comms chief Brian Walsh and NRCC communications director Ken Spain, and he is well-known on Capitol Hill from his frequent appearances on cable news.

Heye fills a gap that has been open since Trevor Francis was forced out in late Nov. The deputy comms director left at the same time, and last week RNC press secretary Gail Gitcho announced she would leave to take over communications for Sen. Scott Brown (R-MA).

Walden To Join GOP Leadership

Rep. Greg Walden (R-OR) is the newest member of leadership after being tapped to serve as GOP Leadership Chairman, House Min. Leader John Boehner announced Thursday.

In his new post, Walden will sit in on GOP strategy meetings and direct a transparency initiative the party is leading. The post will give Walden added visibility around DC.

And the new post will add to Walden's already-full plate. He serves as deputy chair of the NRCC and as a deputy whip.

"From a political standpoint, a key strategy for the House GOP leadership, is to 'sell the fight.' Whether we're selling it to members, voters, coalitions groups and allies, the goal is to help everyone understand that winning back the majority is no longer just wishful thinking, it is a real possibility," said one House GOP leadership aide. "Enlisting support for that cause will be important. Greg will fill the role nicely and will play a key role in implementing it."

Walden will become the highest-ranking member of House leadership from a West Coast state, save for chief deputy whip Kevin McCarthy (R-CA). And he is also the only member of the centrist Tuesday Group to join leadership.

The new post is a prominent one, as well. Ex-Reps. Bill Paxon (R-NY), who went on to chair the NRCC, and Rob Portman (R-OH), who later served as director of OMB, each held the post at one point.

Club Hits Gingrich Over Bennett Nod

The Club for Growth slapped ex-House Speaker Newt Gingrich on Thursday for supporting Sen. Bob Bennett's (R-UT) re-election bid.

It is the 2nd time this cycle that Gingrich and the Club have been on opposite sides of an election. In Nov., Gingrich supported Assemb. Dede Scozzafava (R) in the NY-23 open seat race, while the Club backed accountant/Conservative Party nominee Doug Hoffman.

"Last fall, as conservatives around the country rallied to help Doug Hoffman in New York's 23rd district special election, Newt Gingrich supported the ultra-liberal Dede Scozzafava, right up to the day she dropped out of the race and endorsed the liberal Democrat," Club pres. Chris Chocola said in a statement. "Newt has proven time and again that he will support any Republican, regardless of policies and principles. That's his right, but the Club for Growth PAC puts principles over party."

Earlier this week, Gingrich appeared on stage with Bennett in UT, where he endorsed the incumbent senator for another term. Last month, the Club announced it would oppose Bennett's renomination fight, thanks to his work on a health care bill with Sen. Ron Wyden (D-OR), among other issues.

The Club has not chosen a candidate they would support over Bennett, but several have said they will challenge him in a GOP primary.

"Newt was wrong about New York-23, and he's wrong about Utah," Chocola said. "And pretty soon, Bennett will wish Newt never gave him the kiss of Dede."

It's a very public rebuke of a high-profile GOP leader. Gingrich, thought to be considering a bid for pres. in '12, is not often on the opposite ideological side of the Club.

The Four Quadrants Of Congress

In a new analysis appearing tomorrow in National Journal, Ron Brownstein examines House districts by education and racial diversity.

Generally, Brownstein writes, the greater the district's nonwhite population and the higher the education level of its white residents, the more likely it is to be represented in the House by a Dem. In contrast, the analysis found, the whiter the district and the lower its number of white college graduates, the more likely it is to elect a Republican.

Education Minority # of seats Dem-held GOP-held
High      High        113        84       29
High      Low          75        45       30
Low       High         92        62       30
Low       Low         155        66       89

The districts themselves produce different types of elected officials. Almost half of Blue Dogs represent low-minority, low-education districts, while almost 2/3rds of Dems who sit in districts Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) won in '08 represent those low-low seats.

High-education, high-minority districts center around urban areas and affluent suburbs, frequently around tech hubs and universities. High-education, low-minority districts also tend to be college towns or city suburbs. And low-education, high-minority districts make up inner cities and districts with high numbers of minority voters outside of cities, like those held by Reps. Ann Kirkpatrick (D-AZ) and Larry Kissell (D-NC).

It is the low-low Dems, though, who face the most challenging landscape this fall. Those Dems, Brownstein writes, are being defined by the actions of a Dem president and a congressional majority attempting to implement an aggressive agenda. Against that framing, Dems in those districts may present much easier targets for the GOP.

In the struggle for House control, the 2 parties face tests with contrasting timeframes. As racial minorities and better-educated whites, or both, become a larger share of the population in more districts, the long-run challenge for Republicans is to compete across a demographically broader range of districts than they do now.

Democrats face a more immediate trial: Avoiding a repeat of the huge wave, particularly among working-class whites, that carried GOPers to control of the House in '94. If the tide of white working-class discontent reaches high enough or spills over to include enough upscale white voters, even those levees may not protect the House majority that Dems labored so long to recapture.

To read the whole article, click here.

Insiders See Big Losses Ahead For Dems

This week's National Journal Political Insiders Poll shows pessimistic Dems and optimistic GOPers setting an early line for the expected Dem losses in the House in the midterms. The average loss projected by the Dem Political Insiders was 24 seats; GOP Political Insiders put the number at 33 seats.

Based on the votes of 95 Dem Insiders and 96 GOP Insiders:

How Many Seats Will Dems Lose In Nov.?
Dem Insiders         GOP Insiders
No change  0%        No change  0%
1-9        1         1-9        0
10-19     24         10-19      3
20-29     45         20-29     31
30-39     18         30-39     42
40-49      5         40-49     17
50+        1         50+        5

"Enough difficult Democratic retirements are occurring -- and the prospects of meaningful reduced unemployment in 2010 are unlikely enough -- that Republicans will eliminate most, if not all, of the Democrats' majority," said one pessimistic Dem Insider.

Optimistic GOPers pointed to an overwhelming national wave, but at least a few said their party needs more money to be able to compete.

"We would do better if we had some fresh leadership in Congress and the Republican Party," groused one Insider.

Meanwhile, Dem Insiders are ready and willing to have another televised encounter between Pres. Obama and House GOPers, but GOP Insiders are not so sure. In fact, they're strongly divided on the idea.

An overwhelming portion of the Dem Insiders -- 82% -- said they thought their party would benefit from another televised session between Obama and Capitol Hill GOPers. Conversely, a minority of GOP Insiders -- 46% -- wanted round 2: 52% said that the party wouldn't benefit from another encounter.

"It was a stupid decision to allow the Q&A to be televised. Obama wiped the floor," said one GOP insider opposed to another round. "We are still not that good at messaging. I think our leaders start to believe their own press releases. We are the same party the voters rejected in '06 and '08."

But, countered a GOP insider who wanted to see the party take another shot: "Rather than being the 'Party of No,' Republicans came across as thoughtful, substantive, and respectful toward the president."

For the complete list, and some very revealing quotes, check out tomorrow's National Journal. Below the jump, a full list on National Journal's Political Insiders.

Continue reading "Insiders See Big Losses Ahead For Dems" »

David Or Goliath?

It seems NBC's "Meet the Press" and host David Gregory are back on track after a little slip into second behind ABC's "This Week" on Nov. 29 of last year.

Gregory has rebounded from his Nov. 29, '09, dip into 2nd place, when "Meet" attracted just a 1.9 Rating/6 Share with 2.673M viewers. "This Week" won the weekend with a 2.0 Rating/5 Share with 2.768M viewers.

Since then, Gregory has consistently increased his total audience. The Jan. 31 show, just 2 months later, attracted a 2.7 Rating/7 share with 3.89M viewers.

Last weekend's edition featured WH sr. adviser David Axelrod and House Min. Leader John Boehner. Meanwhile, "This Week," which featured an exclusive with MA Sen.-elect Scott Brown (R) -- interviewed by guest host Barbara Walters -- garnered a 2.2 Rating/6 Share with 3.072M viewers

To note, Gregory is inching ever closer to the numbers his predecessor, the late Tim Russert, garnered during the same point of the '08 election cycle. In Jan. '06., Russert's total viewer numbers were in the low 4Ms.

According to an NBC News press release sent out today, among the Sunday shows, "Meet the Press," with a 13% increase, had the "largest week-to-week gains in homes." Additionally, the show saw a 16% increase (or 528K) in total viewers between January 24th and the 31st.

Obama To Stump For Bennet

Pres. Obama will be in CO later this month for 2 fundraising events with Sen. Michael Bennet (D), who faces a tough bid for re-election this year.

In an email to supporters, Bennet campaign manager Craig Hughes announced Obama will host a "grassroots reception," with tickets ranging from $25 to $250, and a cocktail reception. Tickets to the cocktail reception cost $1K, while hosts promising to donate or raise $15K will get their picture taken with Obama.

"There is a groundswell of grassroots support growing across the state in support of Michael Bennet's campaign for U.S. Senate. That's exactly why the President is coming -- he wants to be a part of this movement and show his support for keeping Michael as a valuable leader in the Senate," Hughes writes to supporters.

It's the latest fundraising trip Obama has on the menu, though he will also head to NV for another event with Senate Maj. Leader Harry Reid later this month.

And it's the first time Obama will weigh in on a contested Dem primary. Bennet faces a challenge from ex-state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff (D).

Coats Lobbied For PhRMA, Wall Street Banks

Ex-Sen. Dan Coats (R) has spent the past several years advocating on behalf of pharmaceutical companies, major health care firms and big corporations, according to a client roster provided to Hotline OnCall.

Coats, a registered lobbyist at the powerhouse firms King & Spalding and Verner Liipfert Bernhard McPherson & Hand, counts PhRMA and the Healthcare Leadership Council, an organization made up of health care company CEOs, among his clients.

He has also aided the New York Stock Exchange, Goldman Sachs, Merrill Lynch and Bank of America. All 3 big banks accepted bailout funds, a Dem source pointed out.

Coats also did business with Bombardier, the Canadian aerospace and railroad company that manufactures popular regional jet aircraft. Since entering the market, Bombardier has taken significant market share away from US-based Boeing and Airbus, the European aircraft maker. And Coats, who took ex-VP Dan Quayle's House and Senate seat when Quayle advanced, is still benefiting from that relationship -- he lobbied for Cerberus Capital Management, where Quayle works.

Dems will use Coats' lobbying past against him as he takes on Sen. Evan Bayh (D-IN) later this year. Coats first became a lobbyist in '00 after leaving the Senate. He returned to the profession in '05 after he served as ambassador to Germany.

"As a federally registered lobbyist for big banks, private equity firms, and defense contractors, Dan Coats defines what it means to be a Washington DC insider," DSCC spokesperson Deirdre Murphy said. "Hoosiers are not going to welcome home a lobbyist who has taken money from the very special interests and Wall Street banks that brought on the economic crisis and hurt working families."

Meanwhile, GOPers will push back by claiming Bayh is the true DC insider. Bayh went home just 20 times in the last 2 years for which records are available -- including just 7 trips home in '08. The NRSC has signaled it will also challenge whether it is appropriate for Bayh's wife to be sitting on corporate boards, and to be raking in hundreds of thousands of dollars in the process.

"At a time when Indiana's unemployment is at 9.9% and Evan Bayh has been sitting in Washington maxing out the government credit card, any work Dan Coats has done in the private sector will be irrelevant in this race," NRSC spokesperson Brian Walsh said. "Particularly when you consider the millions of dollars the Bayh family partnership has earned over the years, I can't imagine Democrats would really want to shine a big light on how they've earned that money."

A complete list of Coats' lobbying clients, as provided by a Dem source, after the jump.

Continue reading "Coats Lobbied For PhRMA, Wall Street Banks" »

The Boozman Announcement Tour

Rep. John Boozman (R) will make 3 stops this weekend to announce his candidacy, according to details released by his campaign office today.

Boozman will officially kick off his bid with an announcement at the Old Supreme Court chamber in Little Rock on Saturday. Later that day, he will head to Lowell to speak at his campaign headquarters.

On Sunday, Boozman will head to Ft. Smith, on the TX border, to greet supporters.

The announcement tour comes a little more than a week after he made clear to GOP strategists that he would make the race.

So far, though, none of the 9 other candidates in the field have made clear they will drop their own bids. State Sen. Gilbert Baker (R), until now the front-runner, has said he will stay in the race instead of running for retiring Rep. Vic Snyder's (D) seat, while Safe Foods CEO Curtis Coleman (R) told Hotline OnCall he isn't planning to exit the race either.

Hynes Concedes To Quinn

IL Comp. Dan Hynes (D) has conceded defeat in a tight-fought contest against Gov. Pat Quinn after late election results showed him losing ground.

Hynes made the announcement this morning at his campaign headquarters in Chicago. He called Quinn this morning to offer congratulations.

Quinn leads Hynes by about 8,100 votes out of the 912,000 cast -- a margin of less than 1%. Quinn is expected to hold his own press conference later this morning to claim victory.

Meanwhile, GOPers still don't know who their nominee will be. State Sen. Bill Brady (R) has a tiny 406-vote lead over state Sen. Kirk Dillard after all the votes have been counted, meaning elections officials will conduct a recount. Ex-state GOP chair Andy McKenna (R) trails Brady by just under 8K votes.

Coleman: Boozman Causing "Irritation," "Frustration"

When Rep. John Boozman (R) formally announces his entry into the AR SEN race, he will be seen as an immediate GOP frontrunner, thanks to his name recognition as the state's only GOP member.

Behind the scenes, however, there is an "irritation or frustration about John getting into the race this late among 3rd district party activists because most of them already signed up and committed, lined up behind (another) candidate," said to Safe Foods CEO Curtis Coleman (R).

Coleman, who managed ex-Gov. Mike Huckabee's (R) unsuccessful '92 SEN campaign, is one of several GOPers vying for the party nod to take on Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D), one of the most endangered Senate incumbents in the country.

No fewer than 4 GOPers are competitive with, if not ahead of, Lincoln, according to public polls. That includes Coleman, Boozman, state Sen. Gilbert Baker (R) and state Sen. Kim Hendren (R), best known outside of AR for referring to Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY) as "that Jew."

"Everybody that I've got in my campaign, volunteers and paid staff, but everybody that's working in my campaign in the third district has worked for John in his races for Congress and none of them are leaving my campaign; they're all staying with me," said Coleman during an interview with Hotline OnCall. "And that's not insignificant."

He includes everyone from county coordinators to those helping with GOTV efforts in that list. Coleman's also focused heavily on the third district, concentrating half of his four-person staff on the 12 counties within the district.

"We've built our strongest organization in the 3rd district," he said, later claiming that his campaign "by far" has the "strongest grassroots organization of any campaign in the state. "We've got volunteers working in 51 counties and there's not a campaign in the state that approaches that."

According to Coleman, a profile conducted by his campaigned showed it takes only 23 counties to produce 82% of the GOP primary vote. Among those voters, "there is an enormous anti-incumbent" and "throw-the-bums-out mentality," Coleman said, though he insisted, "John Boozman is not the bum."

He added though that he "frankly" doesn't know how Boozman is "going to run away from that effectively."

Continue reading "Coleman: Boozman Causing "Irritation," "Frustration"" »

The Sorting Table -- Ready For A Recount

Ayotte Up With First Radio Spot

Ex-NH AG Kelly Ayotte (R) is up with her first spot in her bid to replace Sen. Judd Gregg (R), launching a radio ad that touts her biography as a tough-on-crime prosecutor.

And Ayotte, cognizant of efforts to brand her as too moderate for NH's GOP electorate, also spends time bolstering her fiscal credentials.

"I'm a strong fiscal conservative. I'm running for Senate to stop bailouts and eliminate wasteful spending," Ayotte says in the ad. "I believe we need a balanced budget not a $1 trillion government takeover of health care."

Ayotte is the second candidate to spend money on early advertising. Businessman Bill Binnie (R) has already run TV ads, and businessman Jim Bender (R) will begin running his own ads next week.

Check out the new spot here, and the full script after the jump.

Continue reading "Ayotte Up With First Radio Spot" »

Hotline After Dark -- The Oh Really Factor

"World News" led with terror alert. "Evening News" and "Nightly News" led with the Toyota recall.

Comedy Central's Jon Stewart went on the "O'Reilly Factor" 2/3 p.m.

Stewart, on Obama's job performance: "You know, I'm torn. For me, I feel like I can't tell if he's a Jedi master playing chess on a three-level board way ahead of us, or if this is kicking his ass."

Stewart, on a Dem poll showing FNC as "the most trusted news operation": "No, I'm not shocked at that. Are you shocked that an Internet poll said I was the most trusted newscaster in America? ... Here's what I believe. Fox News is the most passionate and sells the clearest narrative of any news organization, if that's how - are you still referring to it in that manner?"

O'Reilly: "Yes, it's a news organization. Right. That's how the poll referred to it. ... Nobody had any problem. Only you. Only you have a problem."

Stewart: "I think Fox, in and of yourself, say you're not a news organization all day. Isn't it now your news -- what was it your news from 9 to 11, and then your opinion and then your news again from like 1 to 2:30? ... Except on Jewish holidays and then you're not, and then on alternate parking days, you're news, but then Christmas you're not?"

After the jump, more Stewart, Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) on Senate Maj. Leader Harry Reid, and NV Gov. Jim Gibbons (R) goes after Obama.

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Thursday's Starting Lineup

Good Thursday morning. Who's ready for another fake snow storm? Alright, maybe you shouldn't trust us; when it comes to weather, we're about as accurate as this guy.

Here's today's Starting Lineup, previewing the facts and figures who are going to matter today:

JOBLESSNESS: New job tallies show the US has lost close to 8M jobs during the current recession, 1M more than expected, the Labor Dept. is expected to announce tomorrow. A report revising estimates of US payrolls is expected to show the country lost more jobs between Apr. '08 and Mar. '09 than it did in any other yearly period in 70 years.

That gives Dems an obvious, but not very useful, strategy: Blame Pres. Bush. The party has signaled it will hold the previous admin accountable for bad economic times, and it will attempt to paint the GOP as complicit in those acts. Every GOPer, Dems will say, wants to "go back to Bush economic policies."

The trouble is, that doesn't work. Just ask GOPers who keep trying, and failing, to make Speaker Nancy Pelosi an issue. Yes, voters still blame the Bush admin, but the economy is Pres. Obama's problem now, and voters aren't seeing anything get much better. New unemployment figures are due out on Friday, and unless they show some serious downward trends, it won't matter what argument Dems make come Nov.

By the way, stay current on all the latest economic indicators with our latest clip-and-save.

CONGRESSIONAL LEADERSHIP: Speaking of taking action to reverse the unemployment rate, Pres. Obama meets today at the WH with Pelosi, Senate Maj. Leader Harry Reid, House Maj. Leader Steny Hoyer and Senate Maj. Whip Dick Durbin for a conversation about jobs legislation and the strategy for getting it through Congress in a timely way.

As Fox News' Major Garrett notes, it will be the first time in months Obama has met Dems without wanting to talk about health care. Senate Dems will introduce their version of the bill today, and it had better be effective if the party wants to keep their majorities.

Continue reading "Thursday's Starting Lineup" »