What we at The Hotline learned this week:

-- If President Obama ends up winning a second term, this week will be one he points to as a turning point. The January jobs report exceeded expectations, and gave Team Obama hope they can actually run on their economic record, without having to run away from it. Mitt Romney's gaffe in speaking about poor Americans wasn't a game-changer in and of itself, but it underscored his vulnerabilities being perceived as the candidate of the upper class, detached from the economic concerns of the working class. And the Romney campaign's overall sense of caution was demonstrated when the candidate stood next to Donald Trump to receive the reality show host's endorsement - an endorsement Romney chose to embrace, Romney strategists say, because of their fear of Trump's wrath if they snubbed him.

Despite the slip-ups, Romney still would offer Obama a serious reelection challenge. But the 2012 race now looks like it could be a down-to-the-wire race, a la Bush in 2004, than one where the incumbent was hobbled by a weak economy, a la Bush in 1992.

-- If Texas Rep. Ron Paul is going to be a serious factor in securing delegates, this is his make-or-break month. The calendar is about as good as anything he could ask for after back-to-back last-place finishes in southern states: Caucuses in Nevada followed by Maine, Colorado and Minnesota. Strong second-place finishes could create the narrative that he is be best-equipped to keep Romney under the magic 1,144 number by the time the contest wraps up this summer. But what Paul really needs are wins. He needs to capture a plurality of the vote in at least five states in order to have his name read by the emcee during the Republican National Convention, potentially increasing his power and ability to influence the party platform.

_ This week was another reminder of the current campaign finance landscape, which is dominated by outside groups. Will-he-or-won't-he-keep-funding questions surrounded billionaire Sheldon Adelson -- who has bankrolled a pro-Newt Gingrich super PAC -- and received almost as national coverage as the Gingrich campaign itself. CREDO Mobile, which supports repeals of "Citizens United" is launching a super PAC that hits Republicans, and in Massachusetts, where a Brown/Warren agreement to curb the influence of outside groups garnered a lot of buzz, one pro-Warren group is already exploiting a gap in the document.

-- Senate Democrats should be pleased with the fundraising battle, halfway through the cycle. Frontrunners in contested Democratic primaries are pulling away, and in key races like Virginia and Montana, the party's candidates are building a cash on hand cushion. It's early, and the GOP has its share of breakout stars, such as Linda Lingle and Josh Mandel, but Democrats should be satisfied with where they are right now.

The focus will be on the Super Bowl and Nevada caucus results on the Sunday shows this weekend.

Former Speaker Newt Gingrich will once again make two television appearances the day after the Nevada caucus, going on both Meet the Press and Face the Nation. Former Sen. Rick Santorum, R-Pa., will be on Fox News Sunday.

NBC is hosting the Super Bowl and politicians from the states involved will appear on Meet the Press. Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick, New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg, and Indiana Republican Gov. Mitch Daniels will talk about the big game and 2012.

Fox News Sunday has Virginia Republican Gov. Bob McDonnell as a Mitt Romneysurrogate and former Rep. JC Watts, R-Okla., as a Newt Gingrich surrogate to debate the race.

McDonnell and Maryland Democratic Gov. Martin O'Malley, as heads of their respective parties' governors associations, will talk the economy and 2012 on State of the Union.

Don't forget to tune Saturday night for the Nevada caucus results. MSNBC will have Chris Matthews anchoring special coverage from 8 p.m. to 10:30 p.m. CNN's Election Center will begin coverage at 7 p.m. with Wolf Blitzer, Anderson Cooper and John King headlining the coverage. FNC's coverage will culminate in a special one hour edition of Special Report with FNC's Bret Baier hosting.

Check out the full listings after the jump.

Since the Federal Election Commission's fourth quarter filing deadline passed Jan. 31, we've had the opportunity to look over the House freshman class's fundraising numbers. One of the narratives that has emerged after earlier quarters in 2011 was that a number of House GOP freshmen were having trouble raising money at levels befitting members of Congress. But the fourth quarter filings show that the average freshman is actually pulling in more cash than veteran colleagues.

From Oct. 1 to Dec. 31, the median Republican freshman banked about $165,000, while the median veteran GOP member raised about $147,000. Sure, there are plenty of fundraising flops in the freshman class. (Rep. David Rivera, R-Fla., springs to mind: Despite representing a swing district, he finished second-to-last in freshmen fundraising. All the other members at the bottom of the list represent safe territory.)

But in a sample as large as the freshman class, you're going to end up with some weak fundraisers. There might be a number of them, but there are far more freshmen in sound financial shape. And the majority of GOP freshmen are doing just as well or better than the rest of their conference.

Turning to the other party, the $147,000 average posted by GOP veterans is very close to the average Democratic member's fundraising quarter -- the median Democrat raised about $144,000. The minority party's fundraising usually suffers in comparison to the majority, but Democrats clearly did a good job keeping pace last quarter, capped off by the Democratic Congressional Committee's year-end fundraising victory over its GOP counterpart, an unusual feat for the minority committee.

Likely Democratic gubernatorial nominee John Gregg signaled in a statement this week that he is unlikely to make hay in the campaign over legislation signed by Republican Gov. Mitch Daniels that made Indiana a right-to-work state. WRTV:

Gregg's attempt to turn the page is constant with his effort to cultivate a centrist profile in advance of a likely general election showdown against Republican Rep. Mike Pence. In the interim, however, the cost could be some anger on the left and among labor leaders.

Not the story former Wisconsin Rep. Mark Neumann's Senate campaign wants to see, as he runs as a conservative who stands against the stimulus. The AP:

Neumann pushes back in the story, arguing that the grant began as a Bush administration-era tax credit. It's nonetheless fodder for his GOP opponents as he runs as a limited-government conservative with the backing of Sen. Jim DeMint and the Club for Growth.

A small surge in optimism from Republicans -- and pessimism from Democrats -- regarding control of the House and Senate after the 2012 elections has waned since September, according to the latest National Journal Political Insiders Poll. While Insiders in both parties are still predicting that Republicans will hold the House and retake the Senate, certainty about their predictions slid in the four months since they were last asked about congressional control.

Late-night hosts took aim at Donald Trump's endorsement of Mitt Romney for president on Thursday.

"Imagine that, a billionaire reaching out to a millionaire," Jay Leno joked. "The two classes, coming together."

Don't miss today's Must See Moment at 2:27 when Newt Gingrich makes an endorsement of his own:

The U.S. economy picked up 243,000 jobs in January as the unemployment rate dropped to 8.3 percent, the Labor Department reported on Friday. The surprise decrease boosts President Obama's election-year narrative of slow, steady economic improvement during his term.

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had expected payrolls to grow by 140,000 (compared with 200,000 in the previous month) and the unemployment rate to hold steady at 8.5 percent. The January unemployment rate was the lowest since February, 2009. The number of jobs added in November and December was revised up in Friday's report by a collective 60,000.

Read more on NationalJournal.com.

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. Romney says he "misspoke" when he made his comments about the very poor, Rubio does research on himself, Etheridge is running for governor in North Carolina and Scott Brown's daughter was paid by his campaign to sing at events. Here's today's rundown :

7) To the surprise of ... no one: Rep. Dave Reichert, R-Wash., won't challenge Sen. Maria Cantwell, a source tells the Seattle Times. Reichert's name regularly surfaces in discussions about statewide campaigns, but as he did this year, he has always opted to stay put. No one expected him to run against the popular Cantwell this cycle, especially since his district was shored up for him following redistricting.

6) Sen. Scott Brown's, R-Mass., campaign has spent $9,500 since December of 2010 to pay his daughter to sing at three campaign events, the Boston Globe finds.

5) Nebraska Treasurer Don Stenberg's campaign is touting a GOP poll conducted by Basswood Research for Sen. Jim DeMint's, R-S.C., PAC that shows Stenberg trailing Attorney General Jon Bruning by just six points, 32 percent to 26 percent in the GOP Senate primary. DeMint has endorsed Stenberg in the race.

4) Former Michigan Rep. Pete Hoekstra, running for the Senate, is spending $75,000 to air a TV ad on Super Bowl Sunday.

Arizona businessman Wil Cardon came out swinging against his Senate primary opponent, Rep. Jeff Flake, R-Ariz., calling him "erratic" in an interview with Hotline On Call on the same day he released a web video attacking the congressman for going on junkets.

Cardon previously supported Flake, even donating to his campaign in past years. Asked why he would run for Senate against a man he once backed, Cardon cited Flake's broken term-limit pledge, saying that he doesn't think Flake has the "right skill set," and that it's time for a job creator and an outsider. Cardon also ticked off Flake's votes for increasing the debt ceiling and repealing "Don't Ask, Don't Tell" as issues where the two diverged.

He also called Flake "erratic," calling him a longtime "proponent of amnesty" before he decided to run for Senate and "change his tune." Flake's previous support for comprehensive immigration reform is considered a potential weak spot for him in a GOP primary. Cardon said he supported SB 1070, Arizona's controversial immigration law. "Unfortunately the federal government failed at their job and so now the states are trying to fill in the hole," he said.

Updated at 5:30 p.m.

Rep. Heath Shuler, D-N.C., will not seek reelection next year, he announced on Thursday. The retirement is bad news for Democrats seeking to regain control of the House. The seat is a likely pickup for Republicans and became at risk after redistricting.

"Last week I spent a lot of time at home with my family discussing the possibility of running for governor of North Carolina. This time of reflection and prayer gave us the opportunity to talk about the best course of action for us as a family moving forward. It was during this time that I reached the decision not to seek re-election to the U.S. House of Representatives in 2012," Shuler said in a statement.

Shuler's name was mentioned as possibility for the open seat governor's race in the Tar Heel state, in the wake of Democratic Gov. Bev Perdue's announcement last week that she will retire rather than seek reelection this year. But on Tuesday, Shuler ruled out a bid.

"This was not an easy decision. However, I am confident that it is the right decision," he said on Thursday about his decision not to run for reelection to the House.

Shuler is in his third term and he has repeatedly expressed concern about the lack of influence moderate and conservative Democrats had in the smaller Democratic caucus in this Congress. He ran for minority leader against Nancy Pelosi at the beginning of 2011.

Haywood County, N.C., Democratic Party Chairman Janie Benson said she is caught off-guard by the news.

"He didn't let me know. I'm surprised. I've very disappointed," said Benson, in an interview.

Consumer advocate and Harvard professor Elizabeth Warren and Sen. Scott Brown, R-Mass., recently signed an agreement that seeks to curb the influence of outside groups in the Senate race. Notably, neither received much in the way of PAC donations, at least as percentage of their overall hauls. The New York Times:

Tim Burns is leaving the Pennsylvania Senate race, the Republican announced on Thursday.

"As I said after Saturday's State Committee Meeting, the vote was the first battle in a long process to end the Casey/Obama agenda," said Burns in a statement. "It is a battle that I am committed to pursuing, but not one that I will be doing as a candidate for the United States Senate."

The state GOP endorsed businessman Steve Welch at last weekend's meeting. Burns, who ran for the House in the state's 12th District in 2010, finished third and initially vowed to press on in the race. But on Thursday, he bowed out, acknowledging the difficulty of running without the support of the party.

"When I began this process I put a premium on getting the endorsement of the Republican Party. I thought it was important and have always supported the party's right to make an endorsement," Burns said. "That's why I went to meet with so many leaders across the Commonwealth. Those leaders spoke on Saturday, and while it may not have been the outcome I hoped for, I have always known it would be difficult to carry on without their support."

Burns's exit leaves makes the race largely a three-way competition between Welch, businessman Tom Smith (who wrote his campaign a huge $4.25 million check in the 4th quarter) and former state Rep. Sam Rohrer. Welch and Smith have the ability to self-fund, while Rohrer, running a more conservative campaign, is a significant financial underdog.

Former White House chief of staff Erskine Bowles won't run for governor of his home state, a senior Democratic official confirmed Thursday, leaving his party without one of their better-known contenders.

Bowles had seriously considered running to replace Gov. Bev Perdue, who said last week that she would not seek a second term. The state Democratic Party had gone so far as to buy domain names in preparation for a possible bid.

The Democratic primary is still likely to be a crowded affair. Lt. Gov. Walter Dalton and state Rep. Bill Faison are already in the race, while ex-Rep. Bob Etheridge and Reps. Brad Miller and Mike McIntyre are still considering their own bids.

The eventual winner will start far behind former Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory, the likely Republican nominee. McCrory formally kicked off his long-expected bid on Tuesday with $2 million in the bank and polls that show him popular statewide.

Arizona investor Wil Cardon raised roughly $100,000 and pitched in over $400,000 of his own money, an adviser to the Republican Senate candidate told Hotline On Call on Thursday.

"We raised a little bit over $100,000 and self-funding was $400-450 [thousand]," Cardon adviser Michael Leavitt said on Thursday morning.

"All told it will be close to $600,000," Leavitt said, adding that Cardon's cash on hand total would be about "1.2, 1.3 [million]."

Cardon loaned himself over $800,000 during the 3rd quarter. He raised $402,000 during the same period.

Cardon's haul is well short of what Republican Rep. Jeff Flake raised during the 4th quarter. Flake raised $607,000 and ended the period with $2.56 million in the bank.

When asked how much of his own money he was willing to pitch into his campaign, Cardon would not specify. He's already poured in over a million dollars.

We'll have more later today from our interview with Cardon, who is in Washington.

There goes New Mexico Lt. Gov. John Sanchez's day. The Republican running to replace retiring Democratic Sen. Jeff Bingaman is going to spend his time trying to squash rumors that he'll quit his bid to run for an open House seat instead.

The wound is self-inflicted: A Sanchez staffer, Manuel Gonzales, told the Albuquerque Journal today that the campaign had held "informal conversations" about running for the Albuquerque-based House seat being vacated by Democratic Rep. Martin Heinrich, who's also seeking the Senate seat. Republicans lost their best potential candidate when businessman Jon Barela said he wouldn't run, and Gonzales said some New Mexico Republicans had pushed Sanchez to seek that seat instead.

Sanchez faces a difficult primary against front-running ex-Rep. Heather Wilson, who leads the GOP field both in polling and in fundraising. Wilson finished 2011 with about $1.1 million in the bank; Sanchez has yet to report his fundraising numbers, a hint that they're not going to come close to matching Wilson's haul.

But he's not quitting yet. "Sanchez has no interest in running for Congress," Corbin Casteel, Sanchez's lead consultant, told us in an email.

Welcome back to Hotline Sort and happy Groundhog Day (six more weeks of winter, says Punxsutawney Phil!). Menendez gets a new challenger in New Jersey, Indiana is now a right-to-work state, Cullen won't challenge Scott Walker and the NRSC outraises the DSCC in December. Here's today's rundown:

7) Indiana is now a right to work state following legislation signed by Gov. Mitch Daniels.

6) The National Republican Senatorial Committee outraised the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee in December, $4.5 million to $3.5 million, but both committees raised about the same amount in 2011.

5) Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett had about $415,000 cash on hand at the end of 2011, outpacing former Dane County Executive Kathleen Falk by a wide margin. Of course, Falk is likely to win the support of organized labor, so money should not be a major concern for her. Barrett has not yet announced whether he is running in the recall election.

4) Democratic state Sen. Tim Cullen won't be running for governor in the all-but-certain Wisconsin recall election. Cullen was not regarded as a top tier candidate and acknowledged that he cannot keep pace in the money chase against better-known competition.

Meanwhile, the state Government Accountability Board has posted the 1 million petitions signatures (in the effort to recall Walker) online.

Jon Stewart on Wednesday mocked Mitt Romney's remark that he's not "concerned about the very poor. We have a safety net there."

"Being in a net is bad, whether you're a butterfly or a fish...or a poor person. If you're in a net, something has gone terribly, terribly wrong," Stewart said.

Don't miss today's Must See Moment at 0:45 when Newt Gingrich let's loose on the state of Florida after his loss in the primary there:

Correction: this post previously misstated Berg's fundraising total. He raised $552,000.

2011 is in the rear-view mirror as the money chase grows clearer in several Senate races. The 4th quarter featured some breakout stars (Warren, Lingle) and busts (Mourdock, Shays). Without further ado, here is our list of 4th quarter Senate fundraising winners and losers:

Winners:

-- Elizabeth Warren: Warren had far and away the best fundraising quarter of any Senate candidate, including incumbents. The liberal superstar took in a whopping $5.7 million in the fourth quarter, ending the period with over $6 million on hand. Then, for good measure, she took in over a million more in a day with a "money bomb."

-- Former Hawaii Gov. Linda Lingle: Lingle took in over $1.7 million, easily outpacing Democratic Rep. Mazie Hirono, who had a $624,000 haul. And while Hirono has a real primary to contend with (against former Rep. Ed Case, who has yet to announce his fundraising numbers but has consistently raised less than Hirono), Lingle is free to stockpile her money for the general election.

-- Former U.S. Surgeon General Richard Carmona/Former North Dakota Attorney General Heidi Heitkamp: These two Democratic candidates began running partway through the quarter in races where Republicans are favored, and both impressed. Carmona raised $570,000 since starting in November, not much less than his potential general election foe, Rep. Jeff Flake (who took in $607,000). And Heitkamp raised just under than $500,000, close to Republican Rep. Rick Berg's's full quarter haul of $552,000.

-- Democratic frontrunners in contested primaries: Frontrunning Democrats in contested primaries put additional distance between themselves and their opponents during the quarter -- see the full post on them here (it's bad news for underdogs like Hector Balderas and Don Bivens).

Some senators with no obvious credible challenger nonetheless raised money at a brisk pace over the last quarter over the year. Here are five senators who aren't letting up despite the lack of clear threat:

-- Sen. Amy Klobuchar, D-Minn., has $4.6 million on hand after raising $1 million in the quarter. Her closest competitor? Former GOP state Rep. Dan Severson, who raised $46,300 and has $34,000 on hand.

-- Sen. Maria Cantwell, D-Wash., raised $1.45 million in the final quarter of 2011, and has more than $4 million in the bank. Her only challenger is GOP state Sen. Michael Baumgartner, a freshman from Spokane who brought in just $120,000 in his first quarter in the race.

-- Sen. Dianne Feinstein, D-Calif., raised close to $950,000 in the fourth quarter, and her campaign has $6.6 million in its coffers. She has no big-name challenger, and though GOP Rep. David Dreier has been floated as a potential candidate, his own $10,000 haul in the quarter suggests he's not preparing for a run.

-- Sen. Olympia Snowe, R-Maine, announced raising $629,000 during the fourth quarter, ending the year with $3.4 million in her war chest. Snowe has primary challengers, but neither has caught fire or demonstrated an ability to raise money. And she does have Democratic challengers -- who only announced campaigns recently -- but she's generally considered safe in the general election.

-- Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, D-N.Y., raised $1.8 million dollars in the last three months of the year, giving her a total of $8.1 million. Businessman Marc Cenedella, who could have self-funded, just decided against a run. Nassau County Comptroller George Maragos has said he'd spend up to $5 million of his personal fortune on the race, but he has failed to gain traction so far.