By Jeremy P. Jacobs
Pre-primary reports were due last night at midnight in 7 states. As always, there is particularly revealing info in several competitive races.
Here's a rundown of the numbers that jump off the page on the House side.
Embattled Rep. Charles Rangel (D) had a surprisingly good quarter, mostly because his opponents didn't raise anything. Rangel raised $404K and has $422K CoH. He also spent nearly $500K during the reporting period. His main challenger, Adam Clayton Powell raised an abysmal $44K and has just $39K in his bank account.
In NY-23, Doug Hoffman (R), who made a splash in the '09 special election for the seat by grabbing Tea Party support, reported extremely low numbers. He raised just $37K and has $152K in the bank. He is facing off against businessman Matt Doheny in the GOP primary. Doheny loaned his campaign $250K and raised $41K. He has $471K in the bank. Rep. Bill Owens (D) still has a cash on hand advantage, though, having raised $127K and banking nearly $600K.
Several Republicans posted solid numbers. Ret. Army Col. Chris Gibson (R) had a strong report in NY 20, Sen.Kirsten Gillibrand's (D) former House seat. Gibson hauled in $262K and has $526K in his warchest. That wasn't good enough to top Rep. Scott Murphy (D), however. Murphy raised $325K and has $1.4M in the bank.
Former "Real World" star and ex-Ashland Co. DA Sean Duffy (D) had another strong fundraising report in WI 07. Duffy raised $233K but was matched by state Sen. Julie Lassa (D), who raised $235K. Duffy, who the DCCC targeted this week with its first IE TV ad, still leads in CoH $694K to 403K.
Continue reading "Pre-Primary FEC Run Down: Rangel Makes A Statement" »
By Jeremy P. Jacobs
The national unemployment rate rose to 9.6% and the economy lost 54K jobs, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data released early Friday.
Those numbers beat expectations. Unemployment rose from 9.5% in July, but most economic analysts expected job losses to be higher.
The BLS also revised previous reports to reflect a more positive environment in June and July. The economy shed 175K jobs in June, down from the earlier estimate of 221K jobs, and 54K jobs in July, down from the initial 131K estimate.
Job losses in Aug. came largely from the Census Bureau, which laid off more than 100K workers. All told, the Census peaked in May when it employed 564K workers. By Aug., the bureau had just 82K staff.
The private sector continued to gain jobs, adding 67K to their payrolls. Those gains were largely fueled by boosts in the construction and service industries. But auto manufacturers shed more than 20K jobs last month, the report showed.
Even though it wasn't as bad as some were anticipating, the Aug. report paints a bleak picture politically for Dems. With just two months until Election Day, Friday's report is the final nail in an already-secure coffin that proves the economy will not recover before voters head to the polls.
It also show illustrates the challenge facing Dems, who are looking for ways to stave off a GOP wave this year. Politically, it is untenable for Dems to pass another stimulus package that his heavy on government spending and would, therefore, increase the federal deficit. Reports surfaced last night that the WH is considering new measures, including extending a researchand development tax credit and extending the Bush tax cuts for the middle class.
By Jeremy P. Jacobs
If there were ever a sign that Dems are going to have trouble in Wisconsin this year this is it: Sen. Russell Feingold (D) is skipping Pres. Obama's visit on Monday.
Obama will be in town for a major political rally sponsored by the AFL-CIO. The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel is reporting that Feingold is citing "scheduling conflicts" for missing the rally.
We noted in today's Starting Lineup that Wisconsin is quickly becoming a major focus for Dems this year. Feingold's absence from the rally is sure sign Dems -- and particularly Obama -- are polling badly in the state.
By Jeremy P. Jacobs
Good Friday morning and welcome back to the Starting Lineup. On the radar today: Wisconsin a pivotal battleground for Dems this fall, WH shifting on the economy ahead of a jobs report, and voters casting ballots against the Democrats.
Wisconsin: Pres. Obama will head to Milwaukee for a Labor Day rally with the AFL-CIO on Monday. Obama's trip comes after House Minority Leader John Boehner (R-OH) was in the Badger State this week for a foreign policy speech
So why all this focus on Wisconsin? The answer is simple: Wisconsin has quickly become one of the most important battlegrounds of the cycle.
Let's take look at the ballot starting at the top:
In the governor's race, Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett (D) will likely face Milwaukee Co. Exec. Scott Walker (R) in a competitive open seat race. Strategists from both parties acknowledge that Walker has an edge, but Democrats believe it's still a winnable race.
Sen. Russell Feingold (D) is facing the toughest test of his career against businessman Ron Johnson (R). On Thursday, Johnson reported having raised more than Feingold in his pre-primary FEC report. The Republican hauled in $1.2M to Feingold's $920K. Johnson has also loaned his campaign more than $4M so far. (Feingold still has more CoH than Johnson at the moment though -- $3.1M to $1.6M.)
Wisconsin is also a major priority for House campaign operatives -- with two of the state's House races shaping up to be major battles. The DCCC aired its first IE ad of the cycle this week, targeting former "Real World" star and ex-Ashland Co. DA Sean Duffy (R) in WI 07, retiring Rep. David Obey's (D) Democratic-leaning district. Both Duffy and his Democratic challenger Julie Lassa tallied strong fundraising numbers in their pre-primary reports: Lassa brought in $235K to Duffy's $233K. And polling we've seen suggests Rep. Steve Kagen (D-WI) is awfully vulnerable, even as he doesn't yet know who he'll be facing in November. (Republicans nominate their candidate on Sept. 14.)
Finally, Dems are hoping to maintain precarious majorities in Wisconsin's state legislature. Dems currently have a 3-seat advantage in the Wisconsin Senate and 6-seat advantage in the Wisconsin Assembly. Both houses are in play. http://bit.ly/95bQnM.
Continue reading "Starting Lineup: Watching Wisconsin" »
By Jeremy P. Jacobs
Welcome back to Hotline On Call's "Path To Victory." This week we're looking at OH 15, where Rep. Mary Joe Kilroy (D) is facing a rematch against Steve Stivers (R).
Yesterday, we looked at Stivers' campaign plan. Today, we dive into Kilroy's plan for fighting a Republican wave.
One aspect of this race that is particularly striking: Both sides are confident that they will win. Republicans have seen Kilroy's personal disapproval remain consistently high throughout her first term, while Democrats believe Stivers' lobbying background and the district's base of young voters (at Ohio State) and government workers (in the state capital) will keep Kilroy in the game.
With that, here's Mary Jo Kilroy's Path To Victory.
A Different Kind of Swing District: Dems insist that OH 15 isn't the battleground Republicans say it is for one main reason: It has been somewhat resistant to the national trends that have affected other competitive districts. Columbus is the one part of OH that is currently experiencing both population and economic growth. Further, unemployment is lower here than in the rest of the state.
This has been reflected in polling. A poll put out by the conservative American Action Forum found a few surprises in OH 15. First, there was an even split on support of health care reform -- one of Kilroy's top issues. 46% supported the legislation, 47% opposed it. In most other districts, health care reform performed significantly worse. More, Pres. Obama was viewed favorably by 49% and unfavorably by 46%. That's much better than he fared in other congressional districts in the same batch of swing-district polls.
That means that unlike other Dems in tough races, Kilroy won't have to run away from the White House. In fact, she's expected to get some campaign help from First Lady Michelle Obama.
Spoiler Alert: The American Action Forum poll found Stivers leading Kilroy by a 49% to 44% margin. That was welcome news to Dems because the poll didn't include either of the third party candidates in the race: David Ryon of the Constitution Party or Libertarian Bill Kammerer.
Those candidates will steal votes from Stivers, Dems say, and they have good reason for believing that: In '08, Don Eckhart took 4.25% on Election Day. Those votes came out of Stivers' tally and likely cost him the election.
Stivers faces a similar problem this year. Internal polling from the Kilroy camp taken earlier this summer found Ryon and Kammerer pulling up to 8% of the vote combined
Continue reading "Mary Jo Kilroy's Path To Victory In OH 15" »
By James A. Barnes
The Tea Party movement, which is still dismissed by skeptics as an undisciplined collection of passionate but exotic conservatives, garners plenty of respect from political operatives in both parties according to the latest results of the National Journal Political Insiders Poll. Asked what impact the Tea Party movement will have on GOP prospects in the midterm elections, GOP Insiders, not surprisingly, were pretty bullish. Of the 95 GOP Insiders who responded to the poll this week, 45% said the movement would help a lot and 41% said it would help a little.
Typical of the GOP sentiment was this statement: "Yes, they've nominated some wacky candidates. But their intensity will help Republicans across the board, wacky and non-wacky alike." Said another GOP Insider, "Motivated voters are better than depressed voters. We can worry about re-electing this [freshman Senate] class in six years."
At the same time, 16% of the 93 Democratic Insiders responding said that the Tea Party movement would help GOP prospects in the fall a lot, and another 31% said it would help a little. Combined, that's 47% of the Democratic Insiders who say the Tea Party is going to be a net plus for the GOP which seems more generous than what one might have expected a year ago or even 6 months ago.
Continue reading "Respect Rising For Tea Party" »
By James A. Barnes
Both political parties appear ready to square off over of extending the Bush tax cuts when the Senate takes up the issue later this month, but Republicans may have the upper hand in the debate according to the latest results of the latest National Journal Political Insiders Poll.
When asked what the best political outcome was for their own party on the tax cut issue, 59% of the 94 Democratic Insiders who responded to the poll this week said extending the tax cuts before the election "only for families earning less than $250,000." Many Democrats supporting this position were eager for making the point of whose side they're not on. "It is a good debate to have just before the election: Force the R's to embrace tax cuts for the wealthy and Wall Street big shots."
But at the same time, the rest of the Democratic Insiders didn't have an appetite for a fight and embraced one of three other options: extending the tax cuts for everyone before the election (10%), temporarily extending the tax cuts for a year for everyone (23%), or kicking the issue over to a lame duck session of Congress (9%). And Democrats will need pretty solid unity of purpose if they're going to be able to overcome determined GOP opposition in the Senate and House to raising any taxes.
Ironically, although Republicans have decried the idea of a lame duck session of Congress--warning that it would be a last-gasp for a Democratic majority to push through controversial pieces of legislation before presumably more Republicans were sworn in January--59% of the 95 GOP Insiders who responded said that would be the best political outcome for them in the debate of extending the Bush cuts. Why? Because most Republicans think they will benefit from irresolution on the tax cuts. As one GOP insider bluntly put it, "Bad for America, but good for Republicans heading into November, as the D's seem out of touch." Echoed another, "We need to keep this issue on the table."
Continue reading "Does GOP Hold Political High Card On Bush Tax Cut Debate? " »
By Jeremy P. Jacobs
Rep. Mike Castle (R) is gearing up for battle in Delaware: He is planning to air negative ads on his GOP primary opponent Christine O'Donnell.
"We're not just going to sit by and let her destroy Mike Castle," a Castle campaign source told Hotline On Call.
Hotline On Call reported that Castle has purchased about $180K worth of air time from Aug. 31 to Sept. 6.
The campaign says that, at this point, it is not planning to air the negative ads during that time span, but it could change its mind. The campaign is currently making the ads. Castle is planning on staying on air through the primary. So, it sounds like he'll go negative the week before the primary -- Sept. 7 through primary day on Sept. 14.
Castle is preparing for what looks like it will be an onslaught of ads from the Tea Party Express in support of O'Donnell. The group, which backed Joe Miller in his upset of Lisa Murkowski (R) in AK SEN last week, is vowing to spend at least $250K on this airing ads in Delaware. Chris Good at The Atlantic got his hands on one of the ads, but, as of now, the Tea Party Express has not aired it.
Other Republicans are also going after O'Donnell. The Delaware GOP has been releasing statements against her all week and went up with a new website -- www.RealChristine.com -- on Thursday.
By James A. Barnes
Talking to reporters at the Christian Science Monitor breakfast this morning, AFL-CIO president Richard Trumka disclosed that yesterday he had his first sit-down with nominal adversary Thomas J. Donohue, president of the Chamber of Commerce. The setting was a lunch at the Washington, DC, restaurant Equinox which is practically equidistant from their respective headquarters buildings -- a good neutral site.
While the Chamber has fought labor tooth and nail over the Employee Free Choice Act which would make it easier for unions to organize workers, Trumka put a relatively positive spin on the encounter. "It was a good first meeting and hopefully something fruitful will come of it," said the union chief.
What's next, a movie?
By Jeremy P. Jacobs
Don't miss this: Christine O'Donnell, the Tea Party Express Republican running for Delaware Senate, gave an extraordinary interview with WGMD radio's Dan Gaffney Thursday morning.
Things. Got. Testy.
O'Donnell has quickly becoming a focus of the political world. Observers are watching her race against Rep. Mike Castle in the GOP primary to see if the Tea Party Express can pull off another huge upset, like it did with Joe Miller in AK SEN last week.
The 20+ minute interview is worth listening to. Gaffney takes O'Donnell to task for statements that she won two counties when she ran for Senate in '08 against Joe Biden. He also presses her over a recent scuffle between a member of her staff and a GOP video tracker.
At one point, Gaffney actually mutes O'Donnell's microphone to get a word in and says O'Donnell is trying to filibuster his questions.
Listen to the interview here.
O'Donnell also distances herself from a completely unsubstantiated rumor that cropped up yesterday that Castle is gay, calling it an "insult" to both Castle and his wife. In the process, though, she repeats the rumor several times.
Hotline On Call has reached out to the O'Donnell camp for an interview. We've yet to hear back. Stay tuned.
Thursday, September 2, 2010 10:00 AM
Reid Wilson:
On The Trail
President Obama on Tuesday assiduously avoided any appearance of declaring the mission in Iraq accomplished, but his second Oval Office address may be remembered as vividly as his predecessor's aircraft carrier speech, albeit for a very different reason: Tuesday was the moment Obama turned toward his own re-election bid.
Obama's address was aimed at claiming credit for a key campaign promise, but it was also an acknowledgment that the hardest part of his presidency -- revitalizing an economy that stubbornly refuses to recover -- lies ahead.
Re-election campaigns are a combination of reminding voters of the promises the candidate made, and kept, the first time he or she ran, and making new promises to be kept during the subsequent term.
That formula, said Democratic strategist Tad Devine, "will certainly be what [Obama and his advisers] want to focus on -- real accomplishment, a relentless focus on the economy, a path towards future economic growth, and later a strong push-off against the opposition."
Sure enough, on Wednesday, a top Organizing for America official e-mailed Obama's legendary multimillion-member contact list under the subject line "A promise kept." And perhaps no promise was more central to Obama's presidency than ending the war in Iraq. Obama had given a speech opposing the war in 2002, before he was a U.S. senator and long before such opposition was popular, even in Democratic circles. By the time he ran for president, most of his fellow Democratic candidates were taking heat for voting to authorize the use of force against Iraq. Former Sen. John Edwards went the furthest, apologizing for his vote seemingly at every turn.
Only then-Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton stuck to her guns, believing a liberal turn in the primaries would hurt her in a general election; instead, it became the key differentiation between Clinton and Obama in the primaries, one in which Obama was on the right side.
"I think putting some punctuation mark on Iraq at this point was important for historic reasons and to remind the American people what we have done and what we are doing in that part of the world," said Mike McCurry, the former White House press secretary. "Americans tend to forget, and you have to remind them."
But the 2012 presidential campaign won't be about the war in Iraq, and it's not likely to be about the war in Afghanistan, either. Instead, voters now say they care about the economy and jobs above all else. With a recession lingering and showing as many signs of a double dip as of outright recovery -- Friday's monthly jobs reports are expected to detail another serious blow to the economy -- that's not likely to change anytime soon.
Continue reading "Obama's Unofficial Kickoff" »
By Jeremy P. Jacobs
Another week, another batch of polls from the conservative American Action Network that show Democratic House incumbents in trouble. This week, the group focused on 10 districts in the West.
The group surveyed 400 voters in each of the following districts: AZ-01, AZ 05, AZ-08, CA-11, CA-47, CO-03, CO-04, NM-01, NV-03 and OR-05. There was a margin of error of +/-4.9% in each individual poll.
When the Ayres, McHenry and Assoc. surveys -- which were conducted at end of August -- are combined, only 37 percent of respondents say their Dem incumbent deserves re-election while 52 percent say it's time for someone else. By a three-to-one margin, respondents said the country is on the wrong track. Pres. Obama is viewed unfavorably in in these districts by 51% of respondents.
Now, before we get into each poll, it's worth keeping in mind that this is a poll conducted for a conservative organization. And Dems have pushed back against American Action Forum's previous surveys, saying that -- among other things -- questions about health care and other issues are asked before the ballot test, potentially skewing the results.
Here's a cheat sheet to the results: Republicans lead in AZ-01, AZ-05, CO-03 and CO-04. The poll shows deadlock in AZ-08, CA-11, CA-47 and NV-03. Dems are leading in NM-01 and OR-05.
A couple findings buried in the polls jump out. In some of these districts (AZ-01, CO-03, CA-11, NV-03), 70% or more say the country is on the wrong track.
In AZ-08, Tea Party candidate Jesse Kelly (R) is in a dead heat with Rep. Gabrielle Giffords (D) -- 46% to 46%. Kelly knocked off establishment candidate Jonathan Paton in the GOP primary last week.
There is one Dem shining star: Rep. Martin Heinrich in NM-01. Heinrich leads Jon Barela (R) 49% to 42%. There are also signs that this district is firmly in Dem control, at least for now. A Dem leads on the generic ballot test here 40% to 36% -- a rarity in these polls. Obama is also viewed favorably by 52% of respondents in this district.
Check out a breakdown of the races after the jump. You can get the full polling data here.
Continue reading "GOP Polls: Bad News For Dems Out West" »
By Billy House
More than a third of Latino voters blame both parties in Congress for not trying hard enough to pass immigration reform, and Latino enthusiasm for voting in this year's mid-term elections is down, a new poll shows.
Those findings of an election-year tracking poll by Latino Decisions -- released this week and to be updated weekly -- underscore Latino voter dismay over the lack of progress on immigration, an issue that ranks second in importance to them, behind the economy, says one analyst.
"They are frustrated with both parties, and it would appear from the goings-on in D.C. that they are right - both parties are ignoring or avoiding the issue," said Matt Barreto, director of the poll and a political science professor at the University of Washington, Seattle.
The telephone poll of Latino registered voters in 21 states -- which comprised 94% of the Latino electorate in '08 -- was conducted from Aug. 13 to Aug. 26, and has a margin of error of plus or minus 5%.
Updated results will be released weekly each Monday leading up to the Nov. 2 midterm elections.
On the specific issue of immigration reform, congressional Democrats have the edge among the Latinos surveyed when it comes to being seen as working for passage. More than 32% credit Democrats for that, compared to 15.5% who said they saw Republicans doing so.
Continue reading "Latinos Blame Both Parties On Immigration Reform " »
By Jeremy P. Jacobs
Good Thursday morning and welcome to the Starting Lineup. On tap today: Carly Fiorina emerges from a nasty debate as a legitimate contender, Castle's dilemma in Delaware, '12 GOP contenders flock to Iowa, and another round of bad House projections for Dems.
Cali-Fiorina: Former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina (R) squared off against Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) last night in their first debate. Fiorina, who to this point hasn't been the most impressive candidate, should be pleased with the results. She withstood a barrage of attacks from Boxer, most of which focused on her tenure at HP, and aggressively and effectively attacked Boxer on the economy -- and her record.
"She is one of the most bitterly partisan members of the U.S. Senate," Fiorina said, adding that Boxer's policies "have been devastating for our state."
In a dig at Boxer's leadership skills, Fiorina said: "[The energy] bill was taken away from her and given to John Kerry [because] he had a better chance of getting bipartisan support."
Boxer had some reason to celebrate as well: She forced Fiorina to stand by conservative positions on abortion (she's pro-life), man-made global warming (she sidestepped a question on whether it exists and whether she'd support overturning state environmental laws) and the assault weapons ban (she opposes it).
That being said, this race is looking more and more like a true toss up. That's especially true when you consider the $100M CA GOV contender Meg Whitman (R) is going to funnel into the state -- money that will boost turnout for Fiorina. Check out the debate on C-SPAN here: http://cs.pn/9PeU2H
King Of The Castle? Hold on to your horses in Delaware, it looks like we're in for a wild ride. Or at least Rep. Mike Castle is. The GOP primary in the Senate race between Castle and Christine O'Donnell -- which at first appeared to be a sleeper -- is ramping up, in large part because the Tea Party Express is getting heavily involved. Chris Good at The Atlantic has an exclusive look at the audio of TV ads the Tea Party Express is going up with.
"Mike Castle is so liberal he voted for Barack Obama's agenda nearly 60% of the time," one of the ads says. "He voted for the bailouts. He voted for the anti-business cap-and-trade. He supports in-state tuition for illegal aliens. And he even opposes repealing Obama's health care scheme. That's why the Tea Party Express and Mark Levin support commonsense conservative Christine O'Donnell for Senate."
Nothing groundbreaking there, but the Tea Party Express is reportedly planning to spend $250K on the race. Their involvement clearly has Castle worried: Hotline On Call reported on Wednesday that Castle dished out about $180K on an ad buy for before the primary.
It's hard to say what effect the Tea Party Express will have on the race. Up until this point, it looked like Castle was firmly in control. But it's hard to argue with the organization's record -- from Joe Miller in AK SEN to Sharron Angle in NV SEN. Keep in mind that if Castle loses, he'll be the eighth establishment GOP candidate to go down in the primary. http://bit.ly/9kSxT9, http://bit.ly/aVITL9
Another Bad Forecast For Dems: UVA Professor Larry Sabato is out with his latest batch of projections this morning and the news, again, is bad for Dems. Sabato has Republicans picking up 47 seats in the House, slightly more than Charlie Cook's 35-45 seats.
Dems may take solace in this: Sabato doesn't say the GOP will take the Senate. He has upped his projection in that chamber, though, from the GOP picking up 7 seats, to picking up 8. http://bit.ly/9PSn7I
What else are you watching today? The comments section awaits below.
By Jeremy P. Jacobs
Welcome back to Hotline On Call's "Path To Victory," where we dive into some of the most competitive races this cycle and look at how each side plans to win.
This week: Ohio's 15th District, where former state Sen. Steve Stivers (R) is facing Rep.Mary Jo Kilroy (D) in a rematch of one of the most expensive and nastiest races of the '08 cycle.
The 15th CD is the consummate swing district in the consummate swing state. In '08, Kilroy won by just 2,312 votes in '08 in what many considered the cycle's marquee House race. The DCCC spent $2.1M on the race, double what the NRCC doled out.
Come Election Day, OH 15 will answer one of the big questions floating out there this cycle: Will first time voters who backed Pres. Obama -- like students at Ohio State -- return to the polls and back Dem incumbents?
When we can, we'll start with the challenger in this feature. Stay tuned tomorrow for a look at how Kilroy can stave off a GOP wave and win re-election.
Without further ado, here is how Stivers plans to win this year.
A Political Animal: When Stivers met with the NRCC and electoral prognosticators at the beginning of the '08 cycle, he whipped out a map of the district and started lecturing on where he would pull out his votes. Down to the precinct level, Stivers knew where ex-Rep. Deborah Pryce (R) underperformed in '06 when she only narrowly beat Kilroy by about 1K votes.
To those that know him, Stivers' strongest attribute is he's a political junkie. He has analyzed and re-analyzed the '08 and knows that if he can make just small gains in certain areas, he'll win.
That tenacity has carried over to his fundraising. Stivers is one of best fundraisers among GOP challengers and he has consistently outraised Kilroy - he's one GOP challenger who won't be at a significant financial disavantage. Currently, he has $1.2M in the bank to Kilroy's $900K.
A Top National Priority: Stivers' fundraising will be bolstered by the NRCC, which has already reserved air time in the district. OH 15 is a top priority for the NRCC for a few reasons. First, Republicans want to avenge the '08 loss and return the seat to GOP hands -- where it was for 40 years before Kilroy won it. National Republicans say there is no question the environment has shifted away from Obama -- who carried the district by a 9-point margin -- and Dems. Internal Republican polling, both in DC and in OH, Republican sources say, show Stivers holding a commanding lead.
Second, if this district flips, it will show Dem control of suburban districts - once believed to be their firewall -- is beginning to give way. And third, the NRCC anticipates the DCCC having to spend BIG money in the expensive Columbus media market again. That, of course, will hamper the Dems' ability to spend elsewhere.
Continue reading "Steve Stivers' Path To Victory In OH 15" »
By Reid Wilson
RNC chairman Michael Steele will embark on a massive bus tour later this month aimed at campaigning for dozens of GOP candidates across the country -- while simultaneously getting some face-time with members of the RNC who will hold Steele's fate in their hands come Jan.
Steele will depart Sept. 15 and maintain a grueling schedule, according to one of many draft itineraries obtained by The Hotline. That version of the following 6 weeks showed events in 116 cities across the lower 48 states. Steele has at least one event in every state, hitting at least 2 and as many as 4 cities in a day.
Steele first unveiled the bus at the party's semi-annual meeting in Kansas City, where GOP staffers paraded out a red cardboard cutout and distributed hats reading, "Fire Pelosi." The bus will kick off in 2 weeks with a rally in DC; Steele is scheduled to be on the road non-stop, without a day off, until an Oct. 30 rally in Baltimore, MD.
"It's an exciting thing to do. This harkens back to when I ran for the United States Senate. We got on a bus and we covered all of Maryland," Steele said, recalling his '06 campaign. "I'm a grassroots guy. I really believe that for our party to regain the people's trust and support, we must take the party to them."
His route, according to the early draft, will take him south through VA, NC, SC, GA and FL, then west through the South, TX and the Midwest. He will cross into the Mountain West and the Southwest before making 10 stops in CA. Steele's route then takes him north to WA, east across the Plains and the Rust Belt before making a swing through the Northeast, then traveling south to his home state.
Continue reading "Steele To Launch 48-State Bus Tour" »
In the latest installment of Hotline TV, Reid Wilson and Josh Kraushaar debate who deserves the credit for atty Joe Miller's (R) win in the AK GOP primary: ex-AK Gov. Sarah Palin (R) or the Tea Party Express.
By Jeremy P. Jacobs
It looks like Rep. Mike Castle isn't taking his Tea Party Express-backed primary opponent lightly: The Republican has purchased $113K worth of airtime before the primary.
Castle is facing off against Christine O'Donnell on Sept. 14 in the GOP primary for Delaware's open Senate seat.
A Dem source that monitors media buys tells Hotline On Call that Castle has purchased $113K worth of airtime for Aug. 31 to Sept. 6 in the Salisbury, MD, media market. That market broadcasts into southern DE. Castle has also purchased $26K worth of time on cable in New Castle County and $42K on radio.
The buy shows that Castle isn't leaving anything to chance. O'Donnell was initially written off as a long-shot outsider candidate, but she is backed by the Tea Party Express -- the same group that was behind Joe Miller's surprise upset of Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R) in AK last week.
The Tea Party Express is preparing to wade into the primary in these final two weeks. The Hill reported earlier this week that the group plans to spend six figures on behalf of O'Donnell.
Castle is a favorite of the GOP establishment, which believes it has a very good shot at picking up Vice Pres. Joe Biden's former Senate seat.
The winner of the Sept. 14 GOP primary will face New Castle Co. Executive Chris Coons (D).
Wednesday, September 1, 2010 12:50 PM
Josh Kraushaar:
Against The Grain
House Republicans are at the precipice of a historic election cycle this November if all indicators remain as troublesome as they currently are for Democrats. Combine President Obama's sagging approval ratings, a stagnant economy, the worsening state of the war in Afghanistan and an unusually high number of seats Democrats hold in Republican-friendly territory, and we're facing a "perfect storm" scenario where Republicans could win the 39 seats necessary to retake control -- with the prospects of even greater gains well within reach.
This week's Gallup tracking poll shows Republicans with a 10-point edge on the generic ballot, 51 percent to 41 percent -- the largest since it began tracking the question in 1942.
Democrats acknowledge the tough environment and the large number of races in play but believe that their financial advantage will make a critical difference in races where Republicans are running unproven, underfunded challengers. And the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee boasts a proven get-out-the-vote program in most of the targeted districts, which it argues can make the difference for incumbents facing tight races.
The national media's coverage of House races has largely focused on the most vulnerable Democrats, like Reps. Tom Perriello, D-Va., John Boccieri, D-Ohio, and Debbie Halvorson, D-Ill., for a sense of the national tide. Those members all have notable biographies, and in a normal election year they would be the ones most worth tracking to get a sense of the national mood. But in this tumultuous election environment (the Cook Political Report is tracking 120 races), we already know the national mood: Voters are fickle, angry at Washington and more eager to consider an alternative candidate than ever before. If Republicans make even moderate gains, as most analysts anticipate, the members at the top of the most vulnerable lists will likely all be gone.
So for a sense of whether the wave will be large enough to sweep in a Republican majority, it's much more useful to look at the bellwether races that aren't at the top of the target lists. Here are the five Democratic congressmen whose struggles on Election Night would indicate Republicans are in clear position to win a majority in the House:
Continue reading "The Five House Bellwethers" »
By Jeremy P. Jacobs
The AFL-CIO on Wednesday unveiled a major mobilization effort for Labor Day weekend, including a national TV and radio ad buy.
The labor organization is spending about half a million dollars on running the ads on national network and cable, according to a source in the organization. The ads will run during baseball and NCAA football games, as well as NASCAR races.
"This is a defining Labor Day for working people and the kick-off to the final round of a defining set of elections," AFL-CIO President Richard Trumka will say at a press conference announcing the ads, according to prepared remarks provided to Hotline On Call.
The AFL-CIO is also leading a grassroots mobilization effort in 26 states this weekend. Already, the labor organization has distributed 2M fliers at more than 300 work sites and is estimating that its effort in the run up to Election Day will be several times larger.
The effort, and the ad, demonstrate that labor is the left's best hope at countering conservative groups that are vowing to spend millions on airing ads this year. The U.S. Chamber of Commerce alone has pledged to spend $75M, and other groups, like American Crossroads, are already becoming a significant presence on the airwaves.
Trumka will also call for "economic patriotism." "Patriotism has traditionally been defined by foreign affairs," he will say. "But patriotism should begin in our own backyard in our own communities."
The economic policies of the GOP will also be a target of Trumka's remarks. In particular, he'll target House Min. Leader John Boehner for an economic policy speech the GOP leader gave last week.
Boehner "outlined a plan that would move us right back to the Bush-era corporate agenda that created the economic morass we are still trying to escape," Trumka will say. In particular, Trumka will attack the GOP for calls to privatize Social Security and cutting taxes for wealthy Americans.
Update, 12:10 p.m.: At the press conference a couple more details emerged. First, the scope of the AFL-CIO's planned program. The organization plans to get involved in 26 states, including Senate, House, governor and state legislature races. It will work in 70 House races and, when the state legislature races are taken into account, anticipates involvement in more than 400 races this cycle.
Second, the ad for this weekend is now live. Check it out here.
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